时代周刊:特朗普在伊朗问题上的两难境地(1)（在线收听）

Trump’s dilemma on Iran deal: to Nix, or Fix

特朗普在伊朗问题上的两难境地：要么拒绝，要么解决

By Karl Vick

文/卡尔·维克

DIPLOMACY IS SUBTLE, ATOMIC SCIENCE complex.

外交是很微妙的，原子科学又很复杂。

But the perceived villainy of Iran by the average American is the stuff of cartoons.

但普通美国人眼里伊朗的邪恶却是漫画里的那种邪恶。

At the time the nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic was signed by the U.S. and its five global partners in 2015,

2015年，美国及其五个国际伙伴与伊朗签署核协议时，

Gallup found 84% of the American public viewed Iran “unfavorably.”

盖洛普调查发现，84%的美国公众都对伊朗持“负面看法”。

The abiding antipathy the U.S. public feels toward Iran encouraged Donald Trump to attack the nuclear pact as a populist candidate.

美国公众对伊朗的反感态度由来已久，这不仅给了唐纳德·特朗普以民粹主义候选人的身份对这一核协议展开攻击的契机，

It also prompted Congress to give the U.S. President the levers to undo the deal,

也促使美国国会赋予了总统撤销该协议的权力，

which lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for strict limits on its nuclear program.

于是，美国解除了对德黑兰的制裁，以换取对伊朗核计划的严格限制。

Skeptical lawmakers passed a law in 2015 requiring that any deal be “recertified” every 90 days by the President.

心存疑虑的议员们在2015年通过了一项法律，要求任何交易总统都要每90天对其进行一次“重新认证”。

On May 12, Trump gets his hand on those levers again—

5月12日，特朗普再次伸手要行使这些权力——

and he seems to be on the fence about whether to finish it off.

但他似乎在犹豫是否要终结这一协议。

International observers say there’s no reason for Trump to vacillate.

国际观察人士说，特朗普本来没有理由犹豫。

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. body that conducts inspections,

负责监督的联合国机构“国际原子能机构”(IAEA)表示，

says Iran’s nuclear program has been taken down precisely as promised.

伊朗的核项目已经完全按照承诺被拆除了。

An enterprise that in 2015 could have produced a nuclear warhead within months has largely been dismantled and is closely monitored.

一家2015年时就能在几个月内生产出核弹头的企业如今基本已拆除，目前还在密切监控之下。

The U.S.—plus China, Russia, Germany, France, Britain and the E.U.—all have gotten what they asked for.

美国，还有中国、俄罗斯、德国、法国、英国和欧盟各方都已得偿所愿。

Trump wants more.

但特朗普还是不肯满足。

His Administration argues that the deal is fatally flawed because it’s not permanent.

他的政府声称，该交易有着致命的缺点，因为它不是永久性的。

After a decade, Iran would be allowed to resume enriching some uranium,

10年后，伊朗就会被允许重新进行铀浓缩，

and go back to basically business as usual after 15 years.

15年后基本就能恢复其之前的水平。

“That’s not acceptable. (2025) is tomorrow,” Trump said at an April 30 press conference.

“这点让人无法接受。(2025年)转眼就到了，”特朗普在4月30日的新闻发布会上说。

But he added: “That doesn’t mean we won’t renegotiate a real agreement.”

但他还补充到：“这并不是说我们就不会就真正可行的协议重新谈判了。”

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton, both hawks on Iran,

国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥和国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿，两人在伊朗问题上都持鹰派立场，

have said the May 12 decision hinges on finding a credible way to do that.

都表示，5月12日的决定取决于能不能找到一种可信的方式来实现这一目标。

ONE PERSON intent on having his say is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡执意要发表自己的看法，

who took to the airwaves from Tel Aviv on April 30 to unveil what he described as an intelligence coup:

4月30日，他在特拉维夫通过电视揭露了他所谓的“情报政变”：

55,000 pages and 183 discs carried out of Tehran warehouses by Mossad agents.

摩萨德特工从德黑兰仓库带走了55000页资料外加183张碟片。

Netanyahu, who opposes the pact, described in detail what outside observers, including the IAEA, had known for years—

对该协议持反对态度的他还详细描述了包括国际原子能机构在内的外部观察机构多年前就已知晓的一个问题——

that Iran had once pursued a nuclear weapon, dubbed Project Amad.

伊朗曾试图开展一个代号‘“阿马德工程”的核计划。