时代周刊:伊朗核协议并没有彻底作废（在线收听）

Now the risk report by Ian Bremmer

下面是伊恩·布雷默供稿的“风险报告”

The aftershock across the globe

余震波及全世界

THE IRAN DEAL ISN’T dead yet.

伊朗核协议并没有彻底作废。

The rest of the signatories (Germany, France, the U.K., Russia, China and the E.U.) have vowed to uphold the terms of the 2015 agreement.

（除美国外的）其他签署方(德国、法国、英国、俄罗斯、中国和欧盟）都坚称会拥护2015年达成的伊朗核协议的规定。

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has signaled a desire to do the same.

伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼也表达了同样的愿望。

And so President Donald Trump’s decision may become the latest proof that we now live in a post–Pax Americana world—

如此一来，唐纳德·特朗普总统的决定或许就成了最新的证据，表明我们现在处在一个“后美国治世”的时代——

one in which the U.S. perhaps doesn’t play a lead role but a participatory one.

一个美国在世界舞台上发挥的不再是主导作用而是参与作用的时代。

There is a growing divide between the U.S. and Europe,

美国和欧洲之间的分歧已经越来越大，

where leaders were already incensed that Trump has

此前，在钢铁和铝产品上特朗普只给了欧盟暂时的豁免，

offered only temporary exemptions on the steel and aluminum tariffs that the U.S. is threatening to impose on the E.U.

现在，他威胁要开始对欧盟征收关税了，他的这一举措激怒了欧洲的领导人们。

After Trump’s Iran announcement, the U.K., France and Germany issued a joint statement that expressed regret and concern.

特朗普宣布推出伊朗核协议后，美法德三国发表了联合声明表示遗憾和关切。

French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to keep the deal alive by pursuing a “broader framework” that addresses not just nuclear activity

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙试图通过促成一个不仅针对核问题，

but also Iran’s missile program and its activities in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

还针对伊朗的导弹项目及其在叙利亚、也门和伊拉克的活动的“更广泛的框架”来挽救这一协议。

But it’s hard to see how he can convince Trump that Iran will no longer be “the leading state sponsor of terror,” as Trump described it.

但很难看到他会如何说服川普相信伊朗将不再是他所谓的“扶植恐怖主义的头号国家”。

In the Middle East, the initial impact has already been felt.

中东已经初步感受到了特朗普退出伊朗核协议的影响。

Israel immediately deployed airstrikes in Syria, and more conflict is now a real risk.

以色列立即在叙利亚部署了空袭，日益增多的冲突如今已经成了真正的风险。

Both Israel and Saudi Arabia, confident in their support from Trump, will answer each perceived Iranian act of aggression.

自信有特朗普撑腰的以色列和沙特表示，伊朗的每一次挑衅，他们都会奉陪。

Worse still, if Iran decides the deal is indeed dead,

更糟糕的是，伊朗要是认定该协议确实已作废，

it will kick out International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and begin enriching uranium.

就会遣散国际原子能机构的监察人员，重新开始浓缩铀。

If you’re worried that Iran is determined to get a nuclear weapon, it’s better to have the inspectors inside the country.

如果你担心伊朗已经决定制造核武器了，那你最好派些监察人员到伊朗去。

Concerns also exist stateside.

美国国内也存在担忧。

The price of oil already reached a three-year high on the speculation that Trump was preparing to abandon the nuclear deal.

由于外界猜测特朗普准备退出核协议，石油价格已经涨到了三年来的最高水平。

As U.S. sanctions come back into force, Iran’s oil production will take a hit, as will the world’s supply of the critical commodity.

随着美国对伊朗的制裁重新生效，伊朗的石油生产将会受到影响，石油这种极为重要的大宗商品在全球的供应也将受到影响。

If a spike in oil prices pushes gas prices higher,

如果油价飙升带动天然气价格上涨，

there will be political repercussions for Trump and his allies—just in time for the summer driving season and then the midterm elections.

特朗普及其盟友的政绩就会受到影响——而且正好撞上夏季驾车高峰和中期选举。

The President has not offered an alternative plan to thwart Iran’s nuclear development.

目前，特朗普总统还没有提出阻止伊朗继续发展核武器的其他方案。

Perhaps Iran’s faltering economy will doom the regime.

或许，伊朗那摇摇欲坠的经济自己就会将伊朗政府推入深渊。

Or maybe the Trump Administration will respond to perceived provocation with military strikes.

又或许，特朗普政府会以军事打击还击挑衅。

Whatever the strategy, the world may have just become an even more volatile place.

但无论他们采取何种战略，这个世界可能都已经愈加动荡了。