时代周刊:挽救《北美自由贸易协定》已时日无多（在线收听）

Time’s almost up to spare NAFTA from Trump’s chopping block

挽救《北美自由贸易协定》已经时日无多

THE IRAN NUCLEAR deal isn’t the only major agreement that President Trump promised voters he would either rewrite or tear up.

伊朗核协议并不是特朗普总统承诺选民他要么会修改要么会彻底撕毁的唯一一大协议。

After nine months of talks,

经过了9个月的会谈，

U.S., Mexican and Canadian negotiators remain deadlocked on how to rework, and save, the North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA).

美墨加三方的谈判代表们在如何重写，如何挽救《北美贸易协定》这一问题上仍旧僵持不下。

There’s now a renewed sense of urgency,

现在，因为达成协议，

because time is running out to reach a deal to spare NAFTA, the pact that has governed cross-border trade since 1994.

挽救自1994年以来一直指导跨境贸易的《北美自由贸易协定》的时间已经所剩无几，紧迫感又多了一重。

If no agreement is reached in May, things will become much more complicated.

如果5月份还不能达成协议，形势就会变得复杂得多。

Here’s why:

原因如下：

Even if the three sides come to an agreement this month, Trump can’t just sign it into law.

即便三方真能在本月达成协议，特朗普也无法直接将其签署为法律文件。

The U.S. Constitution gives Congress, and not the President, power to regulate commerce with foreign nations.

因为美国宪法将管理对外贸易的权力赋予了国会而非总统。

Under trade promotion rules, Trump must notify Congress 90 days before he intends to sign it.

根据贸易促进规则，特朗普若有意签署协议，便要提前90天前通知国会。

Then the U.S. International Trade Commission must report to Congress on the likely impact of the deal before lawmakers can vote on it.

由国际贸易委员会向国会报告协议可能产生的影响，之后议会对协议进行表决。

That will take more time.

表决所需的时间则更长。

Then Congress has 90 session days before voting yes or no on the deal.

对协议表决同意或否决之前，国会有90天时间进行会议讨论。

House Speaker Paul Ryan calculated that lawmakers would need to see a deal by May 17 in order to be able to vote on it this year.

众议院议长保罗·瑞安估计，议员们要想在今年就该协议进行投票，就需要在5月17日前看到协议。

WHY THE HURRY?

为何要这么着急？

Because the political headwinds aren't in the deal's favor—

因为政治风向于这一协议不利——

and not just in the U.S., Canada's federal elections aren't due to be held until 2019,

而且，不仅是美国，加拿大的联邦选举也要到2019年才会举行，

and in any case, both the Liberal and Conservative parties support NAFTA.

更何况，无论如何，自由党和保守党两派都是支持《北美自由贸易协定》的。

But the situation in Mexico is more complicated.

不过，墨西哥的情况就复杂多了。

Mexicans will choose a new President on July 1.

7月1日，墨西哥就将敲定新总统。

The clear front runner in that election is the veteran leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

这届选举中，领先的明显是左翼老将安德烈斯曼纽尔·洛佩兹·奥夫拉多尔。

He doesn't oppose a NAFTA renegotiation on principle,

原则上，他并不反对就《北美自由贸易协定》重新展开谈判，

because he knows the loss would harm Mexico's economy far more than that of the U.S. or Canada.

因为他知道，如果谈判失败，墨西哥将要遭受的经济损失远超美国和加拿大。

But if he wins and no deal has been agreed upon by the time he takes office in December,

但假如他选举获胜，且到他12月上任时三方依然没有达成任何协议，

he will certainly replace virtually the entire Mexican negotiating team,

他势必会换掉墨方的整个谈判队伍，

throwing the entire process back to an earlier stage.

让谈判进程倒退到之前的水平。

THEN THERE IS the complex political calculus in the U.S.,

此外，美国一方还有复杂的政治考量，

where many of the members of Congress who are facing re-election on Nov.6

因为将在11月6日面临连任选举的许多国会议员

are less than enthusiastic about casting a vote on a controversial trade deal.

都对就一项有争议的贸易协议进行投票并不热心。

Pro-trade Republican lawmakers may find themselves in a tough spot

如果特朗普提出一项阻止投资者在法庭上起诉外国政府，

if Trump presents them with a union friendly deal that prevents investors from being able to sue foreign governments in tribunals,

或者要求美国扩大汽车生产，

or requires more automobile production in the U.S.,

或者在协议中纳入一项可能在5年后自动终止协议的落日条款的工会友好协议的话，

or includes a sunset clause that could automatically kill the deal after five years.

支持贸易的共和党议员们可能会发现，他们陷入了艰难的处境。

These are the sorts of changes that some Democrats will like and that Republicans and the business community won't want.

这些变化是一些民主党人喜闻乐见，而共和党人和商界人士却不希望看到的。

Yet the midterm elections might come directly into play

然而，如果民主党人控制了国会并决定，

if Democrats take control of Congress and decide that, even if they like many of the agreement's new terms,

即使他们喜欢协议中的许多新条款，他们也不想让特朗普获得政治胜利的话，

they don't want to hand Trump a political victory.

中期选举便可能会直接发挥作用。

They might push for yet more changes to the deal,

他们可能会推动对协议进行更多的修改，

which would also give Mexico's López Obrador a chance to push for some amendments of his own.

继而给墨西哥的洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔创造推动他自己的一些修改的机会。

But the U.S. President's notoriously mercurial temperament is the X factor in all of this.

但美国总统那众所周知的善变性情给整件事情蒙上了一层未知因素。

The longer a deal is delayed and the more it becomes an agreement that Democrats and López Obrador can get behind,

协议拖延的时间越长，协议就越会变成一份民主党人和洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔都将因此落后的协议，

the more likely that, as with the Iran nuclear deal, Trump will decide to simply walk away from NAFTA altogether.

协议也就越可能像伊朗核协议一样发展到特朗普决定干脆完全退出《北美自由贸易协定》的地步。