时代周刊:贻害全球的保护主义(1)（在线收听）

PROTECTIONISM'S FALSE PROMISE

保护主义的虚假承诺

Much of the criticism leveled against globalization today

当下，全球化之所以被批判，很大程度上

is related to the idea that it enriches the few, leaving the many behind.

都跟全球化只充实了个别人的腰包，大多数人都被甩在了后面这样一种观点有关。

The people making this argument frequently advocate for the wholesale abandonment of globalization—

持这种论点的人常常主张全盘抛弃全球化——

which would put the very existence of an international agenda at risk.

而这样的做法是会危及国际事务的根本存在的。

It is understandable that policymakers are responding to their electorates' grievances.

政策制定者会响应选民的不满也是情有可原。

While some people have benefited from globalization, large pockets of society have suffered—

因为虽然有些人享受到了全球化的红利，但对从发展中国家的农民，

from farmers in the developing world to manufacturing and industrial workers in the West.

到西方国家制造业及工业从业者的很大一部分群体而言，全球化都是一场磨难。

But these frustrations have less to do with the ideal of globalization itself

但跟政客们近几十年来推行的简化版的全球化相比，

than the lite version that politicians have implemented over recent decades.

他们的挫折与全球化这一理想本身并无太大关系。

Regrettably, governments across the globe are pivoting today toward lesser political and economic models.

令人遗憾的是，各国政府如今都在朝着越来越少的政治和经济模式发展。

These will offer quick wins but over the long term will reduce growth,

这样做确实能收获立竿见影的成效，但从长远来看，反而会抑制增长，

increase poverty and spur more political and social unrest.

加剧贫困并引发更多的政治动荡和社会动荡。

Rather than address its shortcomings, this will only entrench the inferior form of globalization.

这样做非但不能弥补全球化的不足，反而会进一步巩固次等形式的全球化。

If the world continues on this isolationist path, three major shifts will happen.

如果国际社会继续走这条孤立主义道路，未来将发生三个重大变化。

First, a more siloed world will force businesses to adopt increasingly local and decreasingly global models.

变化之一，国际社会进一步走向孤立，迫使企业越来越多地采用本地化模式、越来越少地采用全球化模式。

In essence, they will be more likely to rely on local and regional capital—

企业大体上都会更倾向于依赖地方和地区资本——

and less likely to be centrally run from leading financial centers such as New York City, Tokyo and London.

而不是由纽约、东京和伦敦等主要金融中心集中管理。

This change will significantly alter how businesses fund themselves,

这一变化将显著改变企业的融资方式，

how they structure costs and how they view the proposition of long-term growth.

改变他们的成本规划方式以及他们看待长期增长这一命题的方式。

They will be less able to access the global capital that is necessary to fund investments and grow companies—

企业获得为资助投资和增长所必需的全球资本的能力就会打折——

reducing their opportunities to hire people and invest in communities.

企业雇佣员工和投资社区的机会也会随之减少。

Second, there will be short-term deflation and then long-term inflation.

其次，届时将出现短期通缩和长期通胀。

We've already begun to observe the former.

据我们观察，前者现在已经出现了。

Low energy costs, low wages and indeed the low price of money itself (reflected in low interest rates)

能源成本低，工资低，甚至货币本身的价格也低(反映在利率低上)

indicate a prevailing deflationary world, though they all have notably risen recently.

这些都表明通货紧缩仍在继续，尽管近期上述三者的水平都已明显上涨。

As for the latter, the persistence of low inflation has defied warnings of a sharp uptick

就长期通胀来说，低通胀的持续已经打破了

that date as far back as 2009, right after the financial crisis.

早在2009年金融危机爆发后就已出现的通胀率大幅上涨的警告。