时代周刊:中美贸易战进入新阶段(1)（在线收听）

Now the risk report by Ian Bremmer

下面是伊恩·布雷默供稿的一则风险报告

Trade Battles Between the U.S. and China Enter a Perilous New Phase

中美贸易战进入危险的新阶段

NOT SO LONG AGO, U.S. leaders predicted that

不久前，美国领导人还预测，

economic development and the birth of a middle class in China would inevitably move that nation toward democracy.

经济发展和中产阶级的崛起将不可避免地推动中国走向民主。

Instead, China’s leadership has profited from a weaker West.

然而，西方世界的下滑让中国领导层坐收了渔利。

It has seized on opportunities created by European fragmentation and political dysfunction in Washington

他们抓住了欧洲分裂、华盛顿政治失调这一机遇，

to offer China as an alternative model of stability and development.

将中国打造成了另一种稳定和发展的模式。

Another mistake by the U.S.: lawmakers doubted that China would ever become technologically innovative.

美国犯下的另一个错误是国会议员十分质疑中国的技术创新能力。

They believed that, like the Soviet Union, China’s state-dominated economic system would hit a wall when it came to developing new ideas.

他们以为，中国的计划经济体制追求新思路时会和苏联一样碰壁。

Instead, China learned from Soviet mistakes.

然而，中国吸取了苏联的教训。

Now China is investing huge sums in the artificial intelligence,

如今，中国正在大力投资人工智能，机器人和数据管理创新等领域，

robotics and data-management innovations that will determine tomorrow’s balance of power.

而这些领域即将决定国际社会今后的力量对比。

China’s President Xi Jinping declared in October that the nation must become a technological superpower.

中国的国家主席习近平去年10月就已宣布，中国必须成为技术超级大国。

He has repeatedly emphasized the need to shed dependence on foreign intellectual property.

他一直在反复强调摆脱依赖外国知识产权的重要性。

“Indigenous innovation” and technological self-reliance are now core to China’s development strategy.

如今，“自主创新”和技术自主已成为中国发展战略的核心。

His Made in China 2025 program, backed with huge state subsidies for its tech sector, is central to Xi’s vision.

成为技术超级大国这一愿景最为核心的部分就是他提出的“中国制造2025计划”，而政府对该计划的科技板块的补助可谓十分可观。

ON MAY 29, President Trump launched an offensive against that plan.

5月29日，特朗普总统对该计划发起了攻势。

To protect its national security, the White House said in a statement,

白宫在一份声明中表示，为了保护国家安全，

the U.S. will restrict investment in and control exports of “industrially significant technology.”

美国将限制对“行业核心技术”的投资并控制其出口。

The Trump Administration proposes to slap 25% tariffs on some $50 billion of Chinese tech imports, including those related to the vaunted Made in China 2025 program.

特朗普政府提议对价值500亿美元左右的中国输美科技商品，包括那些与“中国制造2025”计划有关的产品加征25%的关税。