时代周刊:特朗普下台是伊朗唯一的希望（在线收听）

Iran is left with few strategic options after Trump’s bold move

特朗普大胆采取行动，伊朗左右为难

Scoring legitimate foreign-policy wins has not been easy for U.S. President Donald Trump, Twitter proclamations notwithstanding.

对美国总统特朗普而言，在外交政策上赢得合法胜利并非易事，尽管从推特上来看并非如此。

But he’s just notched his biggest one yet against Iran.

但他近日还是赢得了迄今为止针对伊朗的最大一次胜利。

Since Trump decided to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),

特朗普决定退出《关于伊朗核计划的全面协议》(JCPOA)后，

Iran has been careful to take only incremental steps away from the hard-fought nuclear deal

伊朗在脱离这一艰难达成的协议时一直颇为谨慎，仅采取循序渐进的方式，

in hopes that the other signatories would salvage it, but to no avail.

希望其他签署国能挽救这一协议，但仍无济于事。

Since then, Iran has spent the better part of a year testing U.S. limits.

于是，接下来的大半年伊朗转向了试探美国的底线。

Cyberattacks. Harassing tankers. Shooting U.S. drones. Hitting Saudi oil facilities.

网络攻击，骚扰游轮，击落美国的无人机，袭击沙特的采油设备。

The U.S. response to all these has been notably restrained, at times infuriatingly so from the perspective of allies.

每次美国的反应都相当克制，在盟友看来有时甚至克制地令人发指。

When the U.S. finally did respond with the shock escalation and assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force,

最后，美国终于加大突袭力度，暗杀了"圣城旅”指挥官卡西姆·索莱马尼少将，

it sent a clear message to Iran that the U.S. was done being cautious.

便是在向伊朗发射明确的信号：美国已经谨慎够了。

Trump has argued in the past that his at-times erratic approach is to his advantage:

过去，特朗普曾辩称，他有时采取反复无常的策略恰好也是他的优势：

“I don’t want people to know exactly what I’m doing—or thinking. I like being unpredictable. It keeps them off balance.”

“我不想让别人确切地知道我在做什么或想什么。我喜欢让人摸不透。这样他们就会自乱阵脚。”

In a world as chaotic as ours,

在我们这样混乱的社会，

it’s a questionable strategy (especially when it comes to dealing with our allies) but one that has paid dividends in this case.

这样的策略确实未必可靠（尤其是在与我们的盟友打交道的时候）但这一次还是收到了一定的成效。

Had Iran not shot down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752,

如果伊朗没有击落乌克兰国际航空公司的752次航班，

it’s possible the rest of the world would be applauding Iran for its attempt to de-escalate tensions

国际社会或许就会称赞伊朗缓解紧张局势的做法，

by shooting missiles into two U.S. military bases in Iraq

包括往伊拉克境内的两个美军基地发射导弹，

and giving enough warning to ensure zero fatalities (though a few U.S. troops were wounded).

为确保零伤亡（尽管还是有几名美军受伤）给予基地足够警告的做法。

But as it is, the Iranians’ misfire cost them any goodwill that the world was willing to spare Tehran’s regime.

然而眼下，伊朗的误伤让他们失去了国际社会放过德黑兰政权一马的任何好感。

Iran is now under massive pressure, from within and without.

从国内到国外，伊朗现在都面临着巨大的压力。

The Iranian people are suffering under tightening sanctions that have brought the country’s teetering economy to its knees.

日益严厉的制裁让这个国家本就摇摇欲坠的经济彻底被逼停，伊朗民众为此饱受其苦。

The European signatories to the deal, while still hoping it can be salvaged in some way,

签署伊朗核协议的欧洲国家，尽管仍然希望能用某种方式挽救这一协议，

are increasingly reluctant to spend their own political capital

已经越来越不愿意将他们的政治资本花在疑似和美国一样坚决，

for an Iranian leadership that seems just as determined as the U.S. to force the world to choose sides, even at the cost of civilian lives.

即便要以平民的生命为代价，也要迫使国际社会选择立场的伊朗领导层身上。

Germany, France and the U.K. have now triggered the dispute-resolution mechanism written into the JCPOA,

德国、法国和英国已经启动写入了JCPOA的争端解决机制，

a clear signal to Iran that they are no longer willing to let Tehran inch closer to a nuclear weapon

这就等于向伊朗释放了一个清晰的信号，在等2020年大选到来，希望美国民众能投票支持特朗普下台期间，

while they wait for the 2020 election and hope the American people vote Trump out of office.

他们已经不愿德黑兰向核武器进一步靠近。

At this point, waiting out Trump is the only hope Tehran has left.

此时此刻，等特朗普下台已经成了德黑兰唯一的希望。

If Trump wins another term, it will be near impossible for Tehran to avoid renegotiating the nuclear deal if it wishes to escape sanctions.

如果特朗普连任成功，德黑兰要想逃脱制裁，就几乎不可能避开重新协商核协议。

But given just how large the divide between the country’s hard-liners and reformists has become, that’s a tall order.

然而，鉴于该国强硬派和改革派之间的分歧已经如此强烈，重新谈判是一个很高的要求。

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s becoming clear that the biggest mistake Iran’s reformists made wasn’t signing the JCPOA,

事后看来，很明显，伊朗的改革派犯下的最严重的错误并非签订了JCPOA，

but overselling the benefits of that deal to the public

而在于向公众夸大这笔交易的好处

(a criticism that can also be lodged against the Obama Administration, if we’re being honest).

（这一批评也适用于奥巴马政府，平心而论的话）。

A diplomatic breakthrough never came for Tehran, nor the economic revitalization that was promised them.

对德黑兰而言，外交上的突破至今没有，承诺给他们的经济振兴也未到来。

Achieving foreign-policy breakthroughs is hard enough.

取得外交政策的突破就已经够难的了。

Overpromising and underdelivering on those breakthroughs can be a tragic mistake—

过度承诺这样的突破还履行不足就会演变成悲剧性的错误——

a lesson that Iran’s leadership, America’s and the rest of the world’s leaders would do well to heed.

伊朗，美国，甚至是全世界的领导人都应该吸取这一教训。