时代周刊:美国的分裂(8)（在线收听）

A round of harsh recriminations seems certain for the Democrats, who had assumed that their coalition of minorities, college-educated white people and young voters was destined only to grow as a share of the electorate, while the post-Trump GOP would be doomed to rely on a dwindling population of older, white, non-college-educated voters. Instead, Republicans appeared to have increased their share of the Black and Latino vote. Democrats failed to topple any GOP incumbents in Texas and lost a congressional seat in New Mexico. Their hopes for a surge of college-educated suburban voters also fell short, suggesting that the GOP's attacks on liberal ideology proved effective in places like Oklahoma City and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. "Democrats need to ask themselves why someone like Joe Biden is an endangered species in the party," says Justin Gest, a political scientist at George Mason University and author of The New Minority: White Working Class Politics in an Age of Immigration and Inequality. "Why is the party of experts, urban intellectuals and woke social-movement activists not producing candidates who can mobilize people in Montana, Ohio, North Carolina? It just doesn't look like a national party." Republicans, even if they lose the presidency, are likely to feel emboldened to continue pursuing Trump's themes. "Donald Trump isn't going away," says Buck, the former Ryan adviser. "He's still going to be the leader of the party and the biggest voice, and he'll at least flirt with the idea of running again. It's going to continue to be a populist, grievance-fueled party."

一轮对民主党的严厉指责是少不了的。民主党人认为他们的少数民族联盟、受过大学教育的白人以及年轻选民只会增加选民的份额。而后特朗普时期的共和党则注定依赖日益减少的老年和非大学学历的白人选民。相反，共和党人似乎增加了他们在黑人和拉丁裔选民中的比例。民主党没能在德州扳倒共和党，还失去了新墨西哥州的一个国会席位。他们对受过大学教育的郊区选民激增的希望也落空了，这表明共和党对自由主义意识形态的攻击在俄克拉荷马城和爱荷华州的锡达拉皮兹等地被证明是有效的。乔治·梅森大学的政治学家、《新少数民族：移民和不平等时代的白人工人阶级政治》的作者贾斯汀·吉斯说：“民主党人需要问问自己，为什么像乔·拜登这样的人在党内是濒危物种？为什么这个由专家、城市知识分子和觉醒的社会运动活动家组成的政党，没有推出一个能够动员蒙大拿州、俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州人民的候选人？它就不像是一个全国性政党。”共和党人即使失去总统宝座，也可能有胆量继续跟从特朗普的主题。前瑞安顾问巴克表示：“唐纳德·特朗普不会离开，他将仍是共和党的领袖和最强发声人。他至少会有再次参选的念头，共和党将会一直是一个民粹主义的、充满不满的政党。”

Some elections mark a breakthrough—the emergence of a new American majority after years of conflict and gridlock. A landslide like Franklin D. Roosevelt's in 1932 or Ronald Reagan's in 1980 would have signaled a nation ready to move on from its cultural and ideological cleavages and seek some way forward together. Instead it looks more bitterly split than ever. "There was a substantial political divide in this country before Donald Trump was elected," Ridge says. "His presidency has exacerbated that divide to an almost unimaginable degree. But that did not begin with Donald Trump, and it will not end with him, either."

某些选举标志着一项突破——经过多年的冲突和僵局，美国出现了一个新的多数党。1932年富兰克林·D·罗斯福和1980年罗纳德·里根取得的压倒性胜利标志着这个国家准备摆脱其文化和意识形态的分裂，寻求共同前进的道路。然而相反，现在的美国似乎比以往任何时候都更加分裂。里奇说：“在唐纳德·特朗普当选之前，这个国家存在着巨大的政治分歧，而他的总统任期把这种分歧加剧到了几乎无法想象的程度。这种分歧并不始于唐纳德·特朗普，也不会跟随他结束。”