时代周刊:美国的两极分化(2)（在线收听）

Take a look at the exit polls. In 2016, Donald Trump won 58% of the white vote. In 2020, he won 57%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 89% of the Black vote. In 2020, Joe Biden won 87%. In 2016, Clinton won 66% of the Hispanic vote. In 2020, Biden won 66%. Yes, the total margins adjusted very slightly—and those slight adjustments can make the difference between winning and losing in closely divided swing states—but the overall message was crystal clear. Our tribal loyalties remain intense.

看看出口民调吧。2016年，唐纳德·特朗普赢得了58%的白人选票。2020年，他赢得57%的选票。2016年，希拉里·克林顿赢得了89%的黑人选票。2020年，乔·拜登赢得了87%的选票。2016年，克林顿赢得了66%的拉美裔选票。2020年，拜登赢得了66%的选票。是的，整体差距的变化非常微小——这些微小的变化会在两党势均力敌的摇摆州造成输赢的差别——但总基调是非常清晰的，即我们对种族的忠诚仍然很强烈。

It's worth noting here the role of the Electoral College and the Senate. It's virtually certain that the GOP has lost the popular vote for the seventh time in the past eight presidential elections, yet at the same time, it has no real reason to believe that either the presidency or the Senate is slipping from its grasp. The result is a sense of increasing political frustration from a majority of the nation, with no real path to reform the system.

值得注意的是选举团和参议院的作用。几乎可以肯定的是，共和党在过去八届总统选举中第七次失去了普选，但与此同时，我们并没有真正的理由相信总统或者参议院能够从共和党的掌控中消失。其结果就是，由于没有真正的改革途径，美国大多数人会有越来越强烈的政治挫败感。

And so the nation's politics looks like a version of trench warfare, where massive effort is expended to achieve the most incremental gains and the costs of stalemate only escalate. Those emotional costs may well be the most consequential. As the Pew Research Center has noted, partisan antipathy is growing "more intense, more personal." A supermajority of Democrats and Republicans view their opponents as "more closedminded." A supermajority of Republicans view Democrats as "more unpatriotic." But data is inadequate to capture the pain and intensity of human feelings. Our social media timelines are full of stories of broken relationships and fractured families. Many of us can tell stories of old friendships grown cold.

所以，美国的政治看起来就像是一场堑壕战，要付出巨大的努力来获得最大的增量收益，而陷入僵局的代价只会越来越大，其中情感上的代价可能是最为重要的。正如皮尤研究中心所指出的那样，党派反感正变得“越来越强烈，越来越个人化”。绝大多数的民主党人和共和党人认为他们的对手“更保守”。绝大多数共和党人认为民主党人“更不爱国”。但数据不足以捕捉人类情感的痛苦和强烈程度。我们的社交媒体时间线充满了破裂的关系和破裂的家庭故事。我们很多人都能讲述旧日友谊逐渐冷淡的故事。

The presidency may change hands, but the fundamental reality of American politics and culture remains the same. Our nation is deeply divided, our partisans are very angry, and there is no immediate prospect for change.

总统职位可能会易手，但美国政治和文化的基本现实依然如旧。我们的国家已经严重分裂，我们的党派非常愤怒，而且目前还没有改变的希望。