纽约时报 伊朗对峙反倒助长了两国鹰派的气焰(3)（在线收听）

“Does the Iranian government want this sort of stuff now? No,”

“这样的局面是伊朗政府现在想要看到的局面吗？不是，”

said Sir John Jenkins, a former British ambassador to Saudi Arabia with deep experience in the region.

曾担任英国驻沙特大使，在该地区的问题上拥有丰富经验的约翰·詹金斯爵士评论道。

But the Revolutionary Guards, which profits greatly from black-market trade that thrives in times of sanctions

但伊斯兰革命卫队“或许存在让民众继续慌乱的动机，”因为伊朗受到制裁之后，伊朗黑市反而得到了蓬勃的发展，

and sees a chance to embarrass Mr. Rouhani, “might have an incentive to keep people rattled.”

卫队则从这些黑市中狠狠地捞了一笔，而且，他们认为这是给鲁哈尼难堪的好机会。

The turning point for the Revolutionary Guards, Iran experts say, began in April

多位伊朗专家都表示，自从今年四月特朗普政府开始对伊朗实施新一轮经济制裁，

when the Trump administration imposed new economic sanctions intended to try to choke off Iran’s ability to sell oil anywhere in the world.

试图阻止伊朗往任何地方出口石油之后，卫队就迎来了转机。

“The rhetoric in Iran clearly heated up. Almost everyone is saying this is ‘full-scale economic warfare,’”

“伊朗的言论已经明显升温。几乎所有人都说这是一场‘全面的经济战’。”

said Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

苏格兰圣安德鲁斯大学伊朗研究所所长阿里·安萨里说道。

“The question mark for the rest of was, would the response to ‘economic warfare’ be actual warfare?”

“剩下的问题是，伊朗是否会以实战回应所谓的‘经济战’？”

That also seemed to be the question for Mr. Trump,

这似乎也是特朗普面临的问题，

who loves saber-rattling but often hesitates when he senses his more hawkish advisers are driving him toward conflict

因为他虽然喜欢对其他国家进行武力威胁，但当他意识到尽管他承诺了要将美军从该地区撤回，

in a region of the world where he has promised to bring American troops home.

他的鹰派顾问们却还是在将他推向冲突时，他常常会变得犹豫起来。

In May, when headlines suggested that the two nations were hurtling toward an inevitable clash,

今年5月，头条新闻称两国正朝着不可避免的冲突飞速前进时，

Mr. Trump signaled that it was time to rein in those aides.

特朗普暗示，是时候约束约束那些助手了。

“I actually temper John, which is pretty amazing,” Mr. Trump said about Mr. Bolton.

在谈到博尔顿时，特朗普说，“我实际上是在磨练约翰，这是非常了不起的。”

“I’m the one that tempers him. That’s O.K.

“我成了调教他的人。也行。

I have different sides. I have John Bolton and other people that are a little more dovish than him. I like John.”

我身边有很多持不同立场的人。有约翰·博尔顿，也有比他温和的人。但我喜欢约翰。”

The Iranians appeared to have been watching.

伊朗一方似乎一直在观望。

“There was a general calming of the tension,” Mr. Ansari said.

“紧张局势总体上得到了缓和，”安萨里说。

“The mood music changed when the president started saying we are not after war.”

“总统说我们并不是想要战争时，气氛发生了变化。”

But there was no real dialogue,

但双方并没有进行真正的对话，

unless Mr. Trump has begun secret back-channel conversations though Oman or another party,

除非特朗普通过阿曼或其他政党进行了秘密对话，

much as Mr. Obama did nearly seven years ago.

就像奥巴马近七年前所做的那样。

Mr. Ansari contended that the problem on the American side was “a lack of coherence.”

安萨里认为，美方的问题是“缺乏连贯性”。

Mr. Pompeo, he noted, gave a speech last year citing 12 major changes Iran must make before it can deal with the United States,

他指出，蓬佩奥去年发表演讲时提到，伊朗必须做出12项重大改变，才能与美国达成协议，

only to say in recent days that there were “no preconditions” to talks.

最近几天他又表示，谈判“没有先决条件”。

“There does not seem to be any plan,” Mr. Ansari said.

“他们好像完全没有什么计划，”安萨里说。

Sanam Vakil, a researcher at Chatham House who studies Iran,

查塔姆研究所伊朗问题研究员萨纳姆·瓦基尔

argued that the messaging from Washington had only fueled the debate in Tehran

认为除了加剧了德黑兰的争论，即有关特朗普或他的顾问们是否隐藏了他们的真实意图——推翻伊朗政府的争论，

over whether Mr. Trump or his advisers were hiding their true goal: to topple the Iranian government.

来自华盛顿的信息没有起到任何作用。

In recent weeks, Mr. Trump and Mr. Pompeo have denied that,

最近几周，特朗普和蓬佩奥否认了这一点，

saying they want changed behavior, not changed leadership.

声称他们想看到的是伊朗行为的改变，而不是伊朗领导层的变更。

The debate in Iran now, she said, was about whether to play for time and “bet on change in 2020,” in the American elections.

萨纳姆还说，伊朗现在的争论是要不要拖延时间，将赌注押在“2020年美国大选能否出现转机”上。