纽约时报 美联储即将迎来金融危机后的首次降息(3)（在线收听）

Interest rates make matters worse.

利率导致了事态的进一步恶化。

The Fed policy setting that neither stokes nor reins in growth has been creeping lower as growth slows,

随着经济增长放缓，美联储既不刺激也不控制经济增长的所谓中性利率水平已经缓慢下行，

a trend that has been slowly playing out for years across advanced economies.

然而，所有发达经济体都出现了这一趋势，且都已缓慢发展数年。

That’s why policymakers have not been able to lift rates more despite a very long expansion:

这就是经过了长期扩张，政策制定者仍未能进一步提高利率的原因：

The economy needs very low rates just to sustain historically ho-hum progress.

尽管从历史角度来看，当前的增速平平无奇，但要维持这一增速，美联储必须让利率维持在低位。

And it leaves the Fed with far less ammunition to fight future downturns.

这样一来，未来经济出现下行，美联储采取货币政策的空间就会十分有限。

Gone are the days of cutting 5 percentage points to goad growth back to life, as the Fed did in 2007 and 2008.

像2007年和2008年那样削减5个百分点以刺激经济增长的日子已经一去不返。

Between the continuing shortfall and the Fed’s more limited room to maneuver,

美国经济一而再再而三地未能如愿增长，加上美联储的施展空间越来越小，

officials think the risks of waiting too long to adjust policy are much greater than the costs of going early and later discovering that they could have held off.

官员们认为，调整政策之前等待太久带来的风险要远大于早早地采取措施，哪怕后来发现原本可以推迟行动的成本。

“It’s better to take preventive measures than to wait for disaster to unfold,”

“与其坐等灾难发生，不如提前采取预防措施，”

John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on July 18.

纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·C·威廉姆斯在7月18日说道。

“When you only have so much stimulus at your disposal,

“当你手上只有这么多刺激措施时，

it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress.”

首次出现经济不景气的迹象时就迅速采取行动，降低利率是有好处的。”

The Fed has acted early to get ahead of the curve in the past.

过去，美联储实行的就是提前采取行动这一策略。

Of the seven initial rate cuts that have happened outside of recessions in the past 30 years —

过去30年里，除去经济衰退时期，美国一共实行了7轮降息，就每一轮的首次降息而言——

moves that were or could have been seen as precautionary — 1998 is the most similar to now.

当时被视为或原本能被视为预防措施的举措——1998年的情形和当下最为接近。

As “Armageddon” smashed the box office and 8-year-olds across the country struggled to keep Tamagotchis alive,

那年，《世界末日》打破了票房纪录，全国各地8岁的孩子都在忙着养他们的电子宠物Tamagotchis，

the job market looked hot, inflation lingered below 2 percent,

就业市场十分火爆，通胀率也维持在2%以下，

and, like today, the economic picture at home looked mixed as risks abroad mounted.

此外，和当下的情形一样，国内的经济形势已经喜忧参半，因为国外风险越来越大——

Back then a financial crisis in Russia, a contraction in Japan and election and reforms in Brazil threatened the United States expansion.

当时，俄罗斯出现了金融危机、日本经济也在衰退、加上巴西的选举和改革，这些因素无不威胁着美国经济的进一步扩张。

The Fed cut by a quarter-point in September 1998 and followed that up with an impromptu cut in mid-October and another in November.

1998年9月，美联储降息25个基点，随后的10月中旬和11月也接连采取了临时降息。

The economy righted itself.

正因如此，当年的经济才得以恢复正常。

But there are major differences between that experience and this one.

问题是，那次的情形与当下有着重大区别。

The Fed moved quickly in 1998 while stock markets were sinking on the heels of very real events,

那一次，美联储迅速采取了行动，尽管大型对冲基金长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近倒闭等

including the near-failure of Long-Term Capital Management, a major hedge fund.

看似不太可能，实则千真万确的事情一发生，美国股市就出现了大跌。

This time, the Fed merely signaled coming moves when both real economic data and stocks were wobbling back in May and early June,

这一次，早在5月到6月初，由于深受贸易战升级这一恐慌情绪的惊吓，美国的实际经济数据和股市都已经出现了波动，

spooked by the specter of trade escalation.

即便如此，美联储也只是发出了即将采取行动的信号，

Economic data has since improved, and the Fed’s guidance helped to send equity indexes to record highs.

自那以来，经济数据已经有所好转，美联储的领导也推动股指上升至创记录水平。

“We did not move at the June meeting, but in effect we did move at the June meeting, because markets already priced that in,”

“我们并没有在6月的会议上采取行动，但因为市场已经把波动算进去了，所以也就相当于我们那时就已经开始采取行动了，”

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told reporters on July 19.

圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德7月19日对记者说道。

Mr. Bullard and other Fed officials have tried to signal that this cut may be isolated if the economy stays on track.

布拉德和其他美联储官员一直试图暗示如果经济能够维持在正轨上，这次降息之后或许不会出现二次降息。

Despite their assurances that policy will be flexible and data-dependent and a recent improvement in several economic indicators,

尽管他们保证未来的政策尊重数据且足够灵活，尽管最近几个经济指标均已有所改善，

market pricing suggests investors are betting on further easing before the end of the year.

市场价格表明，投资者还在指望今年年底之前出现二次降息。