商业报道:第一季度经济将会好转？（在线收听）

Trader: First quarter to be flat

One trader predicts an unexceptional start to 2009, but that's actually a positive indicator for the future.

What’s the first full trading week in 2009 and as the Wall Street proverb goes “as goes January, so goes the year”. Is it true? Let’s bring in Bob Laccino. He is a senior market strategist in Regan global capital, joining us now from Chicago. Thanks for being with us CNNMoney. I appreciate it Bob.

Anytime.

What’s your overall sentiment? What are you hearing from the floor right now? But a nice rally at the end of last week? Is this a good indicator for the first quarter or at least this year?

I think it is a little presumptive to say that the entire first quarter will follow this few days or last few days of last year ,but it's definitely positive. I mean most of the traders I am talking to are coming in with sort of renewed sense giving distinct assault alongside, may be taking smaller positions that they wouldn’t be in previous January but you know after it is repeated over and over again, the worst year since 1931. I know a very few people that think this year is going to be as bad. I mean you are coming from a very very low bottom. so I think there is some positive outlooks and some positive sentiment that is going to the month and I think January could finish strong overall.

Give me your predictions for the first quarter of this year just how much of a boost we might see from the market at the first three months. What are they gonna look like?

I think we are gonna see a flat quarter. I don’t think we are gonna see a warner 2 percent gain or a warner 2 percent loss. I think the market is absorbing and digesting bad news. I think most market pro-testaments believe that the largest bad news is out of the way. We might have some small objects here and there. But I think we are going to see a flat first quarter. I think that gonna be positive once again given it is negative as we have been. Flat will be a really really small victory but a victory not the last.

President-elect Barack Obama is unveiling today the first part of his proposed stimulus plan on a docket of nearlly 300 billion dollars in tax cuts major investment in renewable energy , and ener nations , infrastructure, the early reaction to that. What are you hearing?

Oh, positive. It is a larger package that was once expected on the tax cut side. I think after the election, president-elect even bat off a little bit on potentially doing the tax cut. This is reinforcement that they are still committed to that. That’s… there are some people who don’t agree with those economic policies but this really a cater to those people who believe in the renewable energy so traders overall have very positive effect on that. And we are hoping that kind of things brings M&A activity back in the forefront starting with the small and medium sized companies. That’s really the big key for the first and second quarters getting that activity going again.

And of course, M&A activity is really important across the border especially for the financial big business. For them, of course. And then on Friday we get that unemployment December jobs reported. They are that we know the total job losses for 2008. Most people think that’s going to top 2 million. How much will this playing? Are traders already pressing major job losses into the market at this point? Well, they did, they are… If you gonna take a positive art of such a negative thing 2 million jobs lost last year the estimate. I think the positive is that people are expecting it to be bad whenever you have such a negative sentiment. The reason that those negative sentiment indicators work is because as negative it is very hard to surprise to the downside. Whenever one thinks the ultimate downside, the number that is going to come in. You generally get upside surprise .so believe it or not, i think Friday could provide a little bit of bullish blush to the equity markets.

Alright, we leave there. Thanks Bob for joining us. I appreciate it.

一名交易人预测2009年有一个意想不到的开始，但是这对未来的形势是一个积极的信号。

2009年的第一个交易周就像华尔街的谚语“一月份如此，整年如此”。这个说法正确吗？让我们联系一下Bob Laccino，他是里根全球资产的高级市场策略人员，现在在芝加哥。非常感谢您参加我们的CNNMoney节目，非常感谢。

愿随时解答你们的问题。

你的总体观点是什么呢？你现在在交易员中听到的意见是什么呢？上周末是不是形势比较好？这对第一季度甚至接下来一年是不是一个好的信号呢？

我认为说第一季度的形势会跟前几天或者去年的最后几天一样有点无根据，但是这确实是积极的信号。我是说，跟我谈过的大部分交易人都有全新的感觉，虽然去年形势一直不妙。他们的起点可能比去年一月份更低，但是你知道，只要这种变化一点一点继续的话，形势就不同了。我知道，很少人认为今年的形势还会继续糟糕下去。我的意思是，你已经处于很低的谷底了。所以，我认为，前景还比较乐观，我认为整个一月份形势应该都不错。

那么，跟我们说一下你对第一季度的预测，第一季度市场会增长多少呢？应该是什么状况呢？

我认为我们应该面临比较平坦的一个季度。我认为不会有超过两个百分点的上升或下跌。我认为市场正在吸收和消化坏消息。我认为大部分支持圣经的人都相信，最坏的消息已经过去了。我们可能在某些地方有点小问题。但是我认为第一季度应该比较平稳。我认为如果像我们以前那样消极的话反而是比较乐观的。保持平稳是一个非常非常小的胜利，但绝对不是最后一个。

当选总统奥巴马今天批露了他建议的经济刺激计划的一部分，决定投资接近3000亿美元用于税收减免和新能源的开发，基础设施的建设方面。大家最初的反应是什么呢？你听到的消息大约是什么样的呢？

哦，很积极的。这是针对税收减免方面比较大的一个方案。我认为选举过后当选总统会进行一些潜在的减免税收的举动。这证明他们在履行自己的诺言。有人不赞同这个经济政策，但是迎合了那些相信可再生能源的人，所以整体来说交易人对这个消息反应都比较积极。我们希望这种消息使并购活动重回最前线的中小型公司。这对第一季度和第二季度都非常关键。

当然，并购活动非常重要，尤其是对那些金融业务量大的公司。对他们来说，当然重要。周五我们得知12月份失业报告。这是2008年的失业人员总数。大部分人认为总数高达200万。这会对股市有什么影响呢？交易人此时有没有将失业率考虑在内呢？如果要将这个消极的失业率考虑在内的话，你也应该考虑到积极的一面。我认为好的方面是，无论有没有这个坏消息，人们的预期已经很坏了。那些消极的迹象起作用的原因是无论形势多么困难，人们都不会再对消极的消息感到惊讶了。