2021年经济学人 拜登要重新领导世界,中美关系非同小可(3)（在线收听）

Connecting security and economic priorities, the Democrats hope, might also attract the support of Republican hawks such as Marco Rubio, who have taken the same intellectual path, thereby shoring up the centre. This is a worthwhile aim, sharpened by the recent illustration on Capitol Hill of how hard-pressed the rational right is, and what might follow if it fails. It is also fuelled by concerns about the self-defeating politicisation of recent foreign policy— highlighted by the fact that neither of the two previous administrations mustered much bipartisan support for their signature schemes. This is a guarantee of changeable American leadership, off-putting to allies, and guaranteed to fail.

民主党人希望将安全和经济优先联系起来，这也可能会吸引像卢比奥这样的共和党鹰派人士的支持，毕竟他们采取了同样的智慧路线，从而支撑起中间派。这个目标很有价值，而且最近的国会山事件不光使其价值更加凸显，而且也说明了理性右派的巨大压力以及目标失败的后果。对美国近期外交政策有自拆台脚的政治化倾向的担忧也强调了民主党人的目标的必要性（外交政策的这一政治化倾向体现在前两届美国政府的签名方案总是得不到两党的大力支持上）。这是美国领导层变化无常的保证，让盟国望而却步，而且注定要失败。

Yet though Mr Biden has in essence accepted the Republicans’ thinking on China, it would be remarkable if many did support him. Foreign-policy realism has been largely replaced on the right by a never-say-die hawkishness, which permits no reasonable compromise, perhaps because it is partly intended to score points against the left. Mr Biden’s Middle East policy, which is likely to hew to Mr Obama’s commitment to containment and withdrawal, will antagonise Republicans especially. But, keen to accelerate Mr Obama’s aborted pivot to Asia, the Democrats will press on. This will probably involve resuscitating the Iran nuclear containment deal Mr Trump abrogated—triggering a new cycle of partisan sparring, as mystifying to America’s allies as it is self-defeating.

然而，尽管拜登在本质上接受了共和党人对中国的看法，但如果真的有许多人支持他，那就非常了不起了。外交政策的现实主义在很大程度上已被右派中“永不言败”的鹰派所取代，他们不允许任何合理的妥协，也许是因为其部分意图是要打败左派。拜登的中东政策很可能违背奥巴马遏制和撤军的承诺，尤其会引起共和党人的反感。但是，由于急于加快奥巴马曾经夭折的将重心转向亚洲的计划，民主党将继续推进。民主党在推进过程中可能涉及恢复特朗普废除的伊朗核遏制协议，这会引发新一轮的党派纷争，也会令美国盟友感到迷惑，因为这样的行为自拆台脚。

Such are the ambitions and intellectual currents of the centre-left team Mr Biden has assembled. His utterances suggest he has moved with them. Yet the question, which not even his long record can answer, is whether he is committed to the hard policy slog, with few easy wins, that heeding his advisers on China could entail. Especially as events crowd in. Mr Biden starts his presidency with great experience and goodwill. But, in such testing times, the 78-year-old’s leadership may be another source of uncertainty.

这就是拜登组建的中左翼团队的雄心壮志和思潮。拜登的言论表明自己已经跟着他们走了。然而，即便拜登拥有漫长的从政履历，他还是无法对一个问题做出回答，即他是否会在中国问题上听从顾问们的建议，致力于推进基本无法取得轻松胜利的艰难政策。尤其是在这样的多事之秋。拜登先生以丰富的经验和善意开始了他的总统生涯。但是，在这样的考验时期，这位78岁的领导人可能是另一个不确定因素。