2021年经济学人 总能逆风翻盘的欧盟怎么折在了疫情上?(4)（在线收听）

This lack of urgency is a symptom of a much bigger problem: the neglect of the underlying health of Europe’s economies. Even with its new money, the EU budget will account for just 2% of GDP in the next seven-year fiscal period. At the national level, where governments typically spend about 40% of GDP, Europeans have been culpably overcautious.

这种紧迫感的缺乏是更大问题的征兆：对欧洲潜在经济健康状况的忽视。即使有了新的资金，欧盟预算在未来七年财政期间也只占其GDP的2%。在国家层面，政府支出通常占GDP的40%左右，欧洲国家的谨慎是罪魁祸首。

The consequences will be profound. By the end of 2022, America’s economy is expected to be 6% larger than it was in 2019. Europe, by contrast, is unlikely to be producing any more than it did before the pandemic. True, Joe Biden’s $1.9trn stimulus after nearly $4trn in the Trump era risks overheating the economy, but Europe lies at the other extreme. Its budget deficits for 2021 average perhaps half of what America is planning. After the combination of the financial crisis and covid-19, the EU’s output will be 20%, or 3trn euros, smaller than if it had kept up the growth it managed in 2000-07. The EU has suspended its deficit-limiting fiscal rules. Thanks in part to the ECB’s monetary activism, European governments have the fiscal space to do more. They should use it.

后果很严重。到2022年底，美国经济预计将比2019年增长6%。相比之下，欧洲的经济总量不大可能超越疫情之前。诚然，紧随特朗普时代的近4万亿美元经济刺激方案之后的拜登的1.9万亿美元法案有可能导致经济过热，但欧洲则处于另一个极端。其2021年的平均预算赤字可能是美国计划的一半。在金融危机和新冠疫情双重夹击下，欧盟产出将比其保持2000-2007年的涨势下的经济产出低20%，即3万亿欧元。欧盟暂停了限制赤字的财政规定。在一定程度上要感谢欧洲央行的货币积极性，欧洲各国政府才有了更多的财政空间。他们应该用这个空间。

Europe can take comfort from the fact that the vaccination programme will catch up over the summer. Across the continent, Euroscepticism has been in decline during the pandemic, and politicians who used to flirt with leaving, like Matteo Salvini or Marine Le Pen, have changed their tune. But, inexorably, the EU is falling behind China and America because it fails to grapple competently with each successive crisis. In a dangerous and unstable world, that is a habit it needs to change

疫苗接种计划将在夏季赶上的事实可能会让欧洲感到安慰。在整个欧洲大陆，欧洲怀疑主义在疫情期间一直在下降，像马特奥·萨尔维尼或玛丽娜·勒庞这样一直有离开的念头的政客们也改变了他们的态度。但是，欧盟落后于中美是不可避免的，因为它从未出色应对每一次连续的危机。在危机四伏且动荡不安的世界里，欧盟需要改掉这个习惯。