2021年经济学人 中国出厂价飙升加剧全球通胀忧虑(1)（在线收听）

Inflation

通货膨胀

Paid in China

中国内部承担

Long a force for lower consumer prices, is China now exporting inflation?

一直是廉价商品来源的中国如今在输出高价？

Eric zhu, an international sales manager at a Chinese forklift-maker, has just sent his second letter of the year to customers, explaining that prices are going up once again.

中国一家叉车制造商的国际销售经理埃里克·朱刚刚给客户发出了今年第二封信，对再一次涨价做解释。

"We need to share some of the price increases with our partners. We cannot absorb them all ourselves," he says. "The world is crazy now."

“我们需要合作伙伴分担一部分价格涨幅。我们没法全部自己承担，”他说，“目前的市道太疯狂了。”

Although not standard economics terminology, crazy is a good description for the price movements now coursing through global markets.

虽然不是一个标准经济学术语，但“疯狂”的确很好地描述了眼下全球市场上的价格趋势。

Inflation in America is running at its fastest since 2008. Energy and commodity prices have soared.

美国的通胀增速为2008年以来最高。能源和大宗商品价格飙升。

And as Mr Zhu can attest, investors and company bosses are worried that China, the world's workshop, is itself starting to export inflation.

而就像朱先生可以证明的那样，投资者和公司老板们都担心中国这个世界工厂本身开始输出通胀。

It is easy to see why people are concerned. On June 9th China reported that factory-gate prices rose at an annual rate of 9% in May, the highest in more than a decade.

不难看出人们为何担忧。6月9日，中国公布的数据显示5月工业生产者出厂价格同比增长9％，为十几年来最高。

That, along with soaring shipping costs and a stronger yuan, will probably push up the prices of made-in-China goods, from phones to futons.

再加上运输成本飙升和人民币汇率走高，从手机到沙发床的中国制造商品的价格都很可能被推高。

America's imports from China already cost 2.1% more in April than they did a year ago, the fastest rise since 2012.

美国从中国进口的商品在4月已同比涨价2.1％，是自2012年以来最快的增幅。

Yet the danger of China-exported inflation can be overplayed. Only part of the rise in China's producer prices reflects domestic causes.

但是，中国输出通胀的风险有可能被高估。中国生产商价格上升只有一部分是源于国内因素。

Its strong economic recovery was led by investment in homes and infrastructure, which pushed up the price of steel.

中国强劲的经济复苏是由房地产和基建投资带动的，这推高了钢材的价格。

In order to meet green targets, the government has reined in both coal and steel production.

为实现环保目标，中国政府已经在限制煤炭和钢铁生产。

Officials have also vowed to crack down on "excessive speculation" in domestic commodity futures, suggesting that this helped the run-up in prices.

官员们还誓言要打击国内大宗商品期货市场的“过度投机”，暗示这也是推动价格上涨的因素之一。

Most of the price pressures instead reflect the peculiarities of the covid-clouded world.

实际上，这波价格压力主要反映了全球在疫情阴影下的特殊现状。

The global demand for consumer goods—things you can buy online while confined at home—has soared.

全球对消费品（人们困居家中之时仍可从网上买到的物品）的需求飙升。

Chinese exports are about 20% higher than their prepandemic trend, and factories have struggled to keep up with orders.

中国出口量比疫情前高约20％，工厂产能难以跟上订单。

Disruptions to global commodity supplies, such as lockdowns that limited copper mining in Chile and Peru, have also pushed up prices.

全球大宗商品供应受到疫情干扰，例如智利和秘鲁的铜矿开采因封城而受限，也推高了价格。