2021年经济学人 中国出厂价飙升加剧全球通胀忧虑(2)（在线收听）

Rather than transmit the shock, Chinese companies have absorbed much of it.

中国企业非但没有传递这种冲击，反而吸收了其中大部分冲击。

Compared with the end of 2019, before covid-19 upended the world, factory-gate prices in China have risen by nearly 6%.

与2019年底新冠肺炎席卷全球前相比，中国出厂价格上涨了近6%。

But an index measuring the cost of manufactured consumer goods in China went up by just 0.6%.

但中国的一项衡量消费品制造成本的指数仅上升了0.6%。

Companies have had to get by with thinner margins. No wonder Mr Zhu wants to share the pain with customers.

公司不得不在利润率较低的情况下生存。难怪朱先生想要与客户分担痛苦。

Moreover, the policy environments in China and America are very different.

此外，中国和美国的政策环境非常不同。

Whereas the Federal Reserve eased monetary policy dramatically, the People's Bank of China was much more conservative.

美联储大幅放松货币政策，而中国人民银行则保守得多。

It has cautiously begun tapering its support. This may help explain the divergence between the two countries' inflation trajectories.

它已经开始谨慎地减少支持力度。这或许有助于解释两国通胀轨迹的差异。

In America, the Fed's preferred measure of "core" consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.1% year-on-year in April, the most since 1992.

在美国，美联储偏爱的“核心”消费价格(不包括食品和能源)四月份同比上涨了3.1%，这是自1992年以来的最大涨幅。

In China, the core index rose by just 0.9% year-on-year in May. (China's farmers have also helped quell inflation.

在中国，5月份核心指数同比仅上升0.9%。(中国的农民也帮助抑制了通货膨胀。

A recovery in pig stocks after an outbreak of African swine fever has brought pork prices down by nearly a quarter compared with last year.)

非洲猪瘟爆发后，生猪库存有所回升，猪肉价格较去年下跌了近四分之一。)

Taking a longer view, some analysts think that China's ageing population will transform it into an inflationary force.

从更长远的角度来看，一些分析人士认为中国的人口老龄化将使其转变为一种通胀力量。

In the early 2000s, China's low wages helped make consumer goods cheap around the world.

在21世纪初，中国的低工资帮助世界各地用上了廉价消费品。

That suggests that shrinking labour supply and rising wages should have the opposite effect. Yet this is not so clear-cut.

这表明萎缩的劳动力供给和上涨的工资应该会产生相反的效果。然而，事情并不是绝对的。

Low-end manufacturing is already moving to cheaper places like Vietnam and Bangladesh, while a rapid increase in automation in China has also helped restrain prices.

低端制造业已经转移到越南和孟加拉国等成本更低的地方，而中国自动化程度的迅速提高也有助于抑制价格。

Now, though, the pressing question is whether China's input-price inflation will be transitory or more enduring. The answer lies outside China.

然而，当下最紧迫的问题是，中国的投入价格通胀是暂时的还是会更持久？答案不在中国。

As the vaccine roll-out gains traction and something closer to normal life resumes in America and Europe, people are likely to spend more on services such as tourism and eating out, not just on goods bought online.

在美国和欧洲，随着疫苗的不断推广，欧美在一些方面逐渐恢复了接近正常的生活，人们可能会在诸如旅游和外出就餐等服务上花费更多，而不仅仅是在网上买东西。

That would ease the pressure on commodities and, by extension, on China's factories.

这将缓解大宗商品的压力，进而缓解中国工厂的压力。