2021年经济学人 德俄关系--寒冬将至(1)（在线收听）

Europe

欧洲板块

German-Russian relations

德俄关系

From "flawless" to lawless

从“完美无瑕”到无法无天

Angela Merkel's glum trip to Moscow and Kyiv

安格拉·默克尔对莫斯科和基辅的阴郁之旅

When angela merkel took over as Germany's chancellor in 2005 Western leaders had high hopes that Russia would progress from semi-authoritarian regime to liberal democracy.

当安格拉·默克尔2005年接任德国总理时，西方领导人曾对俄罗斯寄予厚望，希望它能从半独裁政权走向自由民主。

Four years earlier Vladimir Putin had declared in a speech in German to the Bundestag, "Russia is a friendly-minded European country."

四年前，弗拉基米尔·普京在德国联邦议院的一次演讲中宣称：“俄罗斯是一个思想友好的欧洲国家。”

The then chancellor, Gerhard Schroder, Mrs Merkel's predecessor, became so chummy with Mr Putin that shortly before leaving office he approved the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany crossing the Baltic Sea.

当时的总理，格哈德·施罗德，默克尔的前任，与普京关系非常亲密，以至于在卸任前不久，他批准了一条穿过波罗的海从俄罗斯到德国的天然气管道的建设。

Russia provided 40% of Germany's gas. Germany was about to become Russia's largest trading partner.

俄罗斯提供了德国40%的天然气。德国即将成为俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴。

Sixteen years later, each country's expectation of the other has failed to materialise.

16年后，两国对对方的期望都未能实现。

Germany had imagined a more liberal Russia; Russia had hoped that Germany wouldhelp convince Europe to treat Russia as an equal, and to create a free-trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

德国曾设想一个更加自由的俄罗斯，俄罗斯曾希望德国能帮助说服欧洲平等对待俄罗斯，并建立一个从里斯本到符拉迪沃斯托克的自由贸易区。

On August 20th Mrs Merkel will travel to Moscow during the last weeks of her chancellorship to say goodbye to a leader whom she has come to distrust deeply.

8月20日，在默克尔总理任期的最后几周，她将前往莫斯科，向一位她已经深深不信任的领导人告别。

Mr Putin will bid farewell to his most important interlocutor among Western leaders.

普京也将告别他在西方领导人中最重要的对话者。

The debacle in Afghanistan will be high on their list, as well as the nearly finished gas pipeline, which America's Congress fiercely opposes.

在阿富汗的溃败将是他们的首要任务，同样重要的还有即将完工的天然气管道，这一工程遭到了美国国会的强烈反对。

Now known as Nord Stream 2, it has become a stain on Mrs Merkel's legacy.

现在被称为“北溪2号”，它已经成为默克尔遗留政策的一个污点。

The chancellor is normally adept at balancing competing interests, but she utterly underestimated how much the pipeline, which she supported mainly to appease the business lobby and her Social Democratic coalition partners, would upset America and Ukraine.

默克尔通常擅于平衡相互竞争的利益，但她完全低估了这条管道会在多大程度上激怒美国和乌克兰。她支持这条管道主要是为了安抚商业游说团体和她的社会民主党联盟伙伴。

They fear it will isolate Ukraine (which also stands to lose lucrative transit fees) and make Europe even more dependent on Russian gas.

他们担心这会孤立乌克兰(乌克兰也将失去有利可图的过境费)，并使欧洲更加依赖俄罗斯的天然气。

After her stop in Moscow Mrs Merkel will travel to Kyiv for talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president.

在莫斯科停留之后，默克尔将前往基辅与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽伦斯基举行会谈。