2021年经济学人 德俄关系--寒冬将至(2)（在线收听）

Pundits differ on whether the turning-point in German-Russian relations was Mr Putin's annexation of Crimea in 2014,

对于德俄关系的转折点是普京在2014年吞并克里米亚，

the Kremlin-directed hacking of the Bundestag's computer systems in 2015 or the killing in 2019 of a Chechen dissident in a Berlin park.

还是克里姆林宫指使的2015年德国联邦议院计算机系统遭到黑客攻击，抑或是2019年在柏林公园杀害一名车臣异见人士，专家们意见不一。

Yet all agree that the poisoning last year of Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin's leading opponent, was the last straw.

然而，所有人都认为，去年克里姆林宫主要对手阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼中毒事件是最后一根稻草。

"German-Russia relations are at the lowest point since the end of the cold war, and they will deteriorate further still," says Stefan Meister of the DGAP, a think-tank in Berlin.

“德俄关系正处于冷战结束以来的最低点，而且还会进一步恶化，”柏林智库DGAP的斯特凡·梅斯特表示。

Mr Putin uses the conflict with the West to drum up nationalist support for his regime.

普京利用与西方的冲突来争取民族主义者对其政权的支持。

He will become even more authoritarian, predicts Mr Meister, by increasing pressure on Russian media and nongovernmental organisations.

梅斯特预测，通过加大对俄罗斯媒体和非政府组织的压力，普京将变得更加专制。

According to Andrey Kortunov, the head of the Russian International Affairs Council, a foreign-affairs think-tank in Moscow, the Russian government has no desire to increase tensions with Germany.

俄罗斯国际事务委员会(位于莫斯科的一家外交事务智库)主席安德烈·科尔图诺夫表示，俄罗斯政府无意加剧与德国的紧张关系。

It expects continuity with Mrs Merkel's policies if Armin Laschet, her party's candidate, becomes the next chancellor.

如果阿明·拉谢成为下一任总理，它希望默克尔的政策能够继续。

If, however, the next chancellor is the Greens' Annalena Baerbock, who opposes Nord Stream 2, Germany looks likely to get tougher with Russia.

然而，如果下一任总理是绿党的阿娜蕾娜·拜尔波克(她反对北溪2号项目)，那么德国可能会对俄罗斯采取更加强硬的态度。

Either way, long gone are the too-cosy days of Mr Schrder, who once called Mr Putin a "flawless democrat", and who is now the chairman of both Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil company, and Nord Stream 2.

不管怎样，施罗德过于安逸的日子早已一去不复返了。施罗德曾称普京是“完美的民主主义者”，他现在是俄罗斯国有石油公司Rosneft和北溪2号的董事长。