2021年经济学人 气候变化会否触发金融危机?(2)（在线收听）

The second channel is financial firms’ exposure to the hazards of rising temperatures.

第二个方面是金融公司会暴露在气温上升所带来的危害中。

Attributing individual natural disasters to climate change is tricky, but the Financial Stability Board, a group of regulators,

将单个自然灾害归咎于气候变化有点强人所难，但由监管机构组成的金融稳定委员会(Financial Stability Board)估计，

estimates that global economic losses resulting from weather-related catastrophes went from $214bn in the 1980s, in 2019 prices, to $1.62trn in the 2010s, roughly trebling as a share of global GDP.

与天气相关的灾害所造成的全球经济损失从上世纪80年代的2140亿美元(按2019年价格计算)上升至2010年代的1.62万亿美元，占全球GDP的比例大约增加了两倍。

These losses are often borne by insurers (though over time the costs should be passed on to customers through higher premiums).

这些损失通常由保险公司承担(不过，随着时间的推移，其成本应该通过更高的保费转嫁到了客户身上)。

The financial system could also be exposed to any wider economic damage caused by climate change, say if it triggered swings in asset prices.

如果气候变化引发资产价格波动，金融体系也可能受到气候变化造成的更广泛的经济损害。

This third channel is harder to quantify.

第三个方面不太好量化。

Academic estimates of the effect of 3°C of warming (relative to pre-industrial temperatures) veer from financial losses of around 2% to 25% of world GDP, according to the Network for Greening the Financial System, a group of supervisors.

根据监管机构绿色金融系统网络(Network For Green The Financial System)的数据，学术上对全球变暖3摄氏度(相对于工业化前的温度)所带来的经济损失的估计，约占世界GDP的2%到25%不等。

Even the gloomiest estimate might prove too rosy if climate change triggers conflicts or mass migrations.

如果气候变化引发冲突或大规模移民，那即便最悲观的预测也可能变得过于乐观。

Perhaps the worst-case scenario for the financial system is where transition risks crystallise very suddenly and cause wider economic damage.

对于金融体系来说，最糟糕的情况可能是转型风险突然显现，并造成更大范围的经济损害。

In 2015 Mr Carney described a possible “Minsky moment”, named after Hyman Minsky, an economist, in which investors’ expectations about future climate policies adjust sharply, causing fire sales of assets and a widespread repricing of risk.

2015年，卡尼描述了一个可能的“明斯基时刻”(以经济学家海曼·明斯基(Hyman Minsky)的名字命名)，即投资者对未来气候政策的预期大幅调整，导致资产贱卖和大范围的风险重新定价。

That could spill over into higher borrowing costs.

这可能会导致借贷成本上升。