2021年经济学人 比特币反弹（在线收听）

Finance and Economics

财经版块

Crypto assets

加密资产

Bitcoin bounce

比特币反弹

A new crypto-linked exchange-traded fund is many things to many people

这种新的加密的交易基金对于很多人来说意味着很多东西

CRYPTO SEASONS are not what they used to be.

加密时代不再是过去的样子了。

In 2017, just as bitcoin was nearing $20,000 for the first time, a regulatory crackdown triggered a crypto “winter”—a period of depressed prices—that lasted nearly three years.

2017年，就在比特币首次接近2万美元之际，一场监管打击引发了一场持续近3年的加密资产“寒冬”——一段价格低迷的时期。

In May this year frost set in after China clamped down on crypto transactions, bringing bitcoin down by half from its peak of $64,900.

今年5月，在中国打击加密货币交易后，比特币开始霜冻，比特币从6.49万美元的峰值下跌了一半。

But after just a few icy months, things are warming up again.

但仅仅在冰冷的几个月之后，情况又开始回暖。

On October 20th bitcoin briefly crossed $67,000—a new record.

10月20日，比特币短暂突破67000美元，创下新纪录。

The latest heat reflects a much-awaited event: the listing of America’s first bitcoin-linked exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the New York Stock Exchange.

最新的热度反映了一个期待已久的事件：美国首只与比特币挂钩的交易所交易基金在纽约证交所挂牌上市。

Run by ProShares, a maker of specialist investment products, it got a green light of sorts after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), America’s main markets watchdog, let a deadline to approve or reject it lapse without objection.

由专业投资产品制造商ProShares运营，在美国主要市场的看门狗——美国证券交易委员会无异议地批准或拒绝的最后期限过去后，它获得了某种形式的绿灯。

The listed fund offers investors exposure not to the cryptocurrency itself but to bitcoin futures, and specifically to contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

上市基金为投资者提供的敞口不是加密货币本身，而是比特币期货，特别是芝加哥商品交易所交易的合约。

Depending on whom you ask, the launch is either a landmark, a way for regulators to retain control, or a disappointment.

这要取决于你问的是谁，有人认为这是一个里程碑，是监管机构保持控制的一种方式，也有人认为是非常令人失望的。

For crypto entrepreneurs and conventional financiers, the launch is a breakthrough.

对于加密货币企业家和传统金融家来说，这是一个突破。

Over the past decade many sought approval for all manner of bitcoin ETFs, only to be denied or fobbed off.

在过去的十年里，许多人寻求批准各种比特币作为交易所交易基金，但都被拒绝或搪塞了。

But in August Gary Gensler, the SEC‘s boss, signalled that he would favour funds that tracked futures, which led to a wave of filings.

但是在8月份，证券交易委员会的老板加里·詹斯勒表示，他将青睐追踪期货的基金，这导致了一波又一波的申请。

Two could start trading later this month.

两家可能在本月晚些时候开始交易。

Others, including ones run by giant asset managers, could follow.

其他公司，包括由大型资产管理公司运营的公司，可能会效仿。

In expectation of all this, existing crypto investors have poured into derivatives markets.

出于对这一切的预期，现有的加密资产投资者纷纷涌入衍生品市场。

“Open interest”—the capital tied up in futures contracts—is at an all-time high.

“未平仓权益”——期货合约中被套牢的资本仍处于历史高位。

The bet is that ETFs will lure retail investors, who are numerous, and institutions, which have big money.

人们押注的是，交易所交易基金将吸引数量众多的散户投资者和资金雄厚的机构投资者。

The former, long put off by the hassle of opening an account at crypto-exchanges, now only need one with an ordinary broker.

前者由于在密码交易所开户的麻烦而搁置，现在只需要一个普通经纪人开户即可。

The latter, nervous about the custody of digital assets, no longer have to own any in order to sell exposure to their clients.

后者对数字资产的托管感到紧张，为了向客户出售敞口，他们不再持有任何数字资产。

There was certainly early enthusiasm: the price of shares in the ETF rose by 4% on its debut.

当然，早期的热情是存在的：交易所交易基金的股票价格在上市首日上涨了4%。

Still, new investors may not come in the droves that bulls expect.

尽管如此，新的投资者可能不会像看涨人士预期的那样成群结队地到来。

For years now individuals have been able to buy bitcoin through mobile wallets, such as PayPal, or brokers, such as Robinhood.

多年来，个人一直可以通过PayPal等移动钱包或Robinhood等经纪商购买比特币。

Institutions can gain exposure through vehicles like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a private fund that allows investors to trade shares in trusts that own bitcoin, and which manages $40bn.

机构可以通过灰度（Grayscale Bitcoin Trust）等工具获得敞口。灰度是一家私人基金，允许投资者交易持有比特币的信托基金的股票，该基金公司管理着400亿美元的资金。

A growing cast of firms, including Wall Street stalwarts such as BNY Mellon and State Street, are lining up to offer institutional-grade bitcoin custody.

越来越多的公司，包括纽约梅隆银行和道富银行等华尔街的中坚力量，都在排队提供机构级的比特币托管。

Purists, meanwhile, would have preferred an ETF that holds bitcoin directly.

与此同时，纯粹主义者更喜欢直接持有比特币的交易基金。

A futures-linked fund needs to roll forward futures contracts as existing ones expire, which is costly; so is the requirement to park hefty collateral at the CME.

期货挂钩基金需要在现有期货合约到期时展期，代价非常大；在芝加哥商品交易所存放大量抵押品的要求也是如此。

Both will eat into returns.

两者都会侵蚀回报。

A straight bitcoin ETF, however, is some way off.

然而，直接推出比特币交易基金还有一段路要走。

Permitting futures funds allows the SEC to direct investors to regulated exchanges like the CME, which enables the watchdog to intervene to prevent wrongdoing.

允许设立期货基金，SEC就可以引导投资者进入芝加哥商品交易所等受监管的交易所，这样监管机构就能够进行干预，以防止不当行为发生。

By contrast, bitcoin trades in a variety of venues, many of which are out of the SEC’s reach, and is notoriously volatile.

相比之下，比特币的交易场所多种多样，其中许多都不在SEC的监管范围之内，而且是出了名的不稳定。

Crypto spring it may be, but the weather can always turn.

这也许是加密货币的春天，但是天气总是会变的。