TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(3)（在线收听）

The black swan lends itself to the idea that we don't have power over our futures.

这只黑天鹅助长了我们的观点，那就是我们无法掌控我们的未来。

And unfortunately, the less control that we think we have, the more likely we are to downplay it or ignore it entirely.

不幸的是，我们越是这样想，我们就越有可能对之不予重视，甚至完全忽视它。

And this dangerous dynamic masks another problem: that most of the problems that we're facing are so probable and obvious,

这个危险的情况还掩盖了另一个问题：那就是我们所面对的困难都极有可能发生且极度明显，

they're things that we can see, but we still don't do anything about.

它们是我们所能看见的，但是我们依然不采取任何措施。

So I created the gray rhino metaphor to meet what I felt was an urgent need.

所以我引用了巨型灰犀牛的比喻，来描绘我所认为的“急需”。

To help us to take a fresh look, with the same passion that people had for the black swan,

为了帮助我们焕然一新，用我们曾经对待“黑天鹅”那样的热情，

but this time, for the things that were highly obvious, highly probable, but still neglected. Those are the gray rhinos.

但这次为了非常明显的事件，很可能发生，但是依然被忽视的事件。那些事件就是灰犀牛。

Once you start looking for gray rhinos, you see them in the headlines every day.

一旦你开始寻找这种动物，你就会每天都在头条看到它的名字。

And so what I see in the headlines is another big gray rhino, a new highly probable financial crisis.

然而我在头条所看到的是另外一头灰犀牛。一个全新的，极有可能发生的金融危机。

And I wonder if we've learned anything in the last 10 years.

于是我在想我们是否真的从过去的十年里学到了什么。

So if you listen to Washington or Wall Street, you could almost be forgiven for thinking that only smooth sailing laid ahead.

如果你是从华盛顿或者华尔街听到的消息，你认为一切顺利就情有可原。

But in China, where I spend a lot of time, the conversation is totally different.

但是在中国，一个我投入了许多时间研究的国家，对话内容完全不一样。