TED演讲:如何用创新来克服危机?(4)（在线收听）

And to explain why this is so, I have a question.

为了解释为什么会是这样，我先问一个问题。

Suppose that there are two diseases: one of them is rare, the other one is common, but if they are not treated they are equally severe.

假设有两个疾病，一个是罕见的疾病，另一个是常见病。但是如果不治疗他们，后果会同样严重。

If you had to choose, which would you rather have: the common disease or the rare disease?

如果你来选择，你会选哪一个呢？常见病还是罕见病？

Common, the common -- I think that's absolutely right, and why?

常见病。对了。我认为这是绝对正确的。为什么呢？

Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases than there are to treat rare diseases. The reason for this is incentives.

因为治疗常见疾病的药物会比治疗罕见疾病的药物多得多。问题的根源在于动力。

It costs about the same to produce a new drug whether that drug treats 1,000 people, 100,000 people, or a million people.

发明新药物的成本都差不多，无论那个药物可以治疗1000人，10万人，或100万人。

But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people.

但是，如果那个药物能治疗100万人，它的营业收入会很高。

So the incentives are much larger to produce drugs which treat more people.

显然了，生产治疗常见病药物的动力要大得多。

To put this differently: larger markets save lives. In this case misery truly does love company.

换句话说，大市场救生命。这真是真正的“同病相怜”啊。

Now think about the following: if China and India were as rich as the United States is today,

请想一想:如果中国和印度像今天的美国一样富有，

the market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now. Now we are not there yet, but it is happening.

抗癌药物的市场将是现在的8倍。我们还没有达到那个程度，但这是会实现的！

As other countries become richer the demand for these pharmaceuticals is going to increase tremendously.

随着其他国家变得更加富有对这些药品的需求将大幅增加。

And that means an increase incentive to do research and development, which benefits everyone in the world.

这意味着研发的动力会增加，这对全世界每个人都有好处。

Larger markets increase the incentive to produce all kinds of ideas,

市场越大，创新的动力越大。

whether it's software, whether it's a computer chip, whether it's a new design.

不论是软件，还是计算机芯片，还是一个崭新的设计。

For the Hollywood people in the audience, this even explains why action movies have larger budgets than comedies:

对于来自好莱坞的观众这甚至可以解释为什么动作片的预算比喜剧片要大：

it's because action movies translate easier into other languages and other cultures,

这是因为动作片更容易翻译到其他语言和其他文化，

so the market for those movies is larger, people are willing to invest more, and the budgets are larger.

这些电影的市场更大，所以人们更愿意多投资，所以预算可以更大。