2021年经济学人 高通胀下一些落后国家还好吗(下)（在线收听）

The sinking currency, by raising the cost of imports, has helped push up inflation by about eight percentage points over the past year, to a rate around four times the central bank’s target.

在过去一年里，由于进口成本的上升，货币不断贬值，通胀率升高了约8个百分点，是央行目标的四倍左右。

Brazil demonstrates how inflation can get out of hand despite the best efforts of a central bank, because of fiscal woes.

巴西的情况表明，尽管央行尽了最大努力，但由于目前的财政困境，通胀仍可能失控。

After suffering hyperinflation in the early 1990s, when the annual inflation rate approached 3,000%, Brazil placed itself on a firmer macroeconomic footing by adopting budget reforms and enhancing the central bank’s independence.

在经历了90年代初的恶性通胀后，当年通胀率高达3000%时，巴西采取了预算改革和增强中央银行的独立性等措施，使自己的宏观经济基础更加稳固。

But from 2014 to 2016, and again over the past year, the ability of the central bank to fight inflation has been threatened by an erosion of confidence in the public finances.

但从2014年到2016年，以及过去一年，央行抗击通胀的能力也因公众对公共财政信心下降而受到威胁。

Government spending in Brazil has surged since the onset of the pandemic.

自疫情爆发以来，巴西的政府支出激增。

Jair Bolsonaro, the president, plans to extend relief payments despite roaring inflation.

尽管通货膨胀加剧，雅伊尔·博索纳罗仍计划增加救济款项的发放。

Worries about debt sustainability have reduced investors’ confidence, leading to falling asset prices and a weaker currency.

对债务可持续性的担忧削弱了投资者的信心，导致资产价格下跌和货币走软。

Despite booming foreign demand for Brazil's commodity exports, the real has tumbled by nearly 30% since the beginning of 2020.

尽管国外对巴西大宗商品出口需求旺盛，但雷阿尔（巴西货币单位）自2020年初以来已下跌近30%。

Higher import prices have contributed to stubbornly high inflation, forcing the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate by nearly six percentage points since March.

进口价格上涨导致通胀居高不下，迫使央行自3月以来将指标利率上调了近6个百分点。

Yet interest rates may be approaching levels at which the additional fiscal cost they impose on the government exacerbates debt-sustainability worries and further weakens the currency, leaving the central bank in a no-win situation.

然而，利率水平可能会使强加给政府的额外财政成本加剧人们对债务可持续性的担忧，同时进一步削弱货币，使央行陷入一种无利可图的境地。

The real has dropped by nearly 2.5% since late October alone—after the central bank raised interest rates by a full 1.5 percentage points and promised to do the same again at its next meeting in December.

仅自10月下旬以来，雷阿尔就下跌了近2.5%，此前央行整整提高了1.5个百分点的利率，并承诺在12月的下一次会议上再次加息。

What happens if neither monetary nor fiscal policy can be counted upon for economic discipline?

如果货币政策和财政政策都不以经济纪律为依据，会发生什么？

Here Argentina provides an illustration.

阿根廷在这里提供了一个例证。

The government has long relied on the printing press to cover budget deficits, and has been in particular need of monetary financing since defaulting on its debt, for the ninth time in its history, in May 2020.

政府长期以来一直依赖印钞机来弥补预算赤字，自2020年5月出现历史上第九次债务违约以来，政府尤其需要货币融资。

Over the past two years the amount of money in circulation has risen at an average annual rate of more than 50%.

在过去的两年里，流通中的货币以年均50%以上的速度增长。

The peso has fallen by over 60% against the dollar since the beginning of last year.

自去年年初以来，比索（阿根廷货币单位）兑美元的汇率下跌了60%以上。

Argentina, like Brazil, has experienced hyperinflation in recent times.

和巴西一样，阿根廷最近也经历了恶性通货膨胀。

Its economic situation may yet be salvaged.

它的经济状况也许还能挽救。

But as policymakers in rich and poor countries alike confront the enormous economic and budgetary costs of covid-19, some may be tempted to depart from norms around monetary and fiscal policy.

但是，由于发达国家和落后国家的政策制定者都面临疫情带来的巨大经济和预算成本，一些人可能免不了会偏离货币和财政政策的规范。

The result, in some unhappy places, could be inflation that is too hot to handle.

在一些出现问题的国家，其结果可能是无法控制的严重通胀。