2022年经济学人 多国消费者价格指数上涨(2)（在线收听）

The simplest component of our ranking is the rate of core inflation. This measure gives a better sense of underlying price pressure.

我们排名中最简单的组成部分是核心通胀率。这一指标更好地反映了潜在的价格压力。

Among our ten countries, America leads the pack (though core inflation is above average pretty much everywhere).

在这十个国家中，美国的这一指标最高(虽然几乎所有国家的核心通胀率都高于平均水平)。

A second measure, of dispersion, helps capture how broadly based price pressures are.

第二个衡量指标，离散程度，有助于了解价格压力的基础有多普遍。

Headline inflation being driven by one or two items—say, the cost of a restaurant meal—is less worrisome than if the price of everything is going up quickly.

由一两种商品(比如餐馆的餐费)驱动的整体通胀远不如所有商品的价格都快速上涨那样让人担忧。

We divide a country’s consumer-goods basket into as many as 16 components, then calculate the share where the inflation rate exceeds 2%.

我们把一个国家的消费品篮子分成多达16种类别，然后计算通胀率超过2%的类别比例。

In Japan just a quarter cross that threshold. But in Australia more than two-thirds do.

在日本，只有四分之一的类别超过了2%。但在澳大利亚，超过三分之二的类别都超过了2%。

JPMorgan Chase, a bank, breaks down Britain’s consumer-price index into 85 components, and finds that inflation rates for 69% of them are running above their 1997-2019 averages.

摩根大通银行将英国消费者价格指数分为85种类别，发现其中69%的通胀率高于1997-2019年的平均水平。

Inflation could also spiral if workers demand higher wages to compensate them for rising prices (and firms raise their prices in turn).

如果工人要求更高的工资来抵消上涨的物价(公司反过来也会提高物价)，通货膨胀就会螺旋上升。

Unit labour costs, which measure the relationship between what workers are paid and the value of what they produce, are rising far faster than their long-run average in many countries.

在许多国家，单位劳动力成本的增长速度远远高于长期平均水平，单位劳动力成本衡量的是工人的收入与其生产价值之间的关系。

On May 5th America’s statisticians revealed that these rose by 7% in the first quarter, compared with a year ago, up from a pre-pandemic average of around 2%.

5月5日，美国统计学家透露，与前一年相比，今年第一季度的单位劳动力成本增长了7%，高于疫情前约2%的平均水平。

Michael Saunders of the Bank of England has noted that with pay deals being struck at up to 5% a year, but productivity growth of only around 1%, Britain’s unit-labour-cost growth is probably “well above the pace consistent with the inflation target of 2%”.

英格兰银行的迈克尔·桑德斯指出，工资协议每年上涨高达5%，但生产率增长仅为1%左右，英国的单位劳动力成本增长可能“远高于2%的通胀目标”。

Our last two measures assess households’ expectations. The higher these remain, the more likely it is that inflation becomes embedded.

我们最后两个指标评估的是家庭对通胀的预期。这些数值越高，通胀就越有可能牢固扎根。

One proprietary data set, provided to The Economist by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Morning Consult, a consultancy, and Raphael Schoenle of Brandeis University, is a rare reliable cross-country gauge of public inflation expectations.

克利夫兰联邦储备银行的研究人员、“莫宁咨询公司”和布兰迪斯大学的拉斐尔·舍恩勒向《经济学人》提供了一组专有数据，这些数据是罕见的、可靠的全国性公共通胀预期指标。

In May 2021 a respondent in the median rich country thought inflation over the next 12 months would be 2.3%.

2021年5月，中等富裕国家的一名受访者认为，未来12个月的通胀率将为2.3%。

Now they expect a rate of 4.5%; Canadians, an even higher 6%.

现在他们预计这一数据为4.5%；加拿大则更高，为6%。

A measure of Google searches also suggests the subject is weighing on people’s minds. Britons now search more frequently for “inflation” than they do for Taylor Swift.

对谷歌搜索量的评估也表明，通货膨胀正困扰着人们。现在，英国人对“通货膨胀”的搜索量比“泰勒·斯威夫特”还频繁。