2022年经济学人 乌克兰还能坚持多久？(2)（在线收听）

The IMF has helped as well.

国际货币基金组织也提供了帮助。

It has encouraged America and other countries to take over part of Ukraine’s allocation of special drawing rights at the fund, in effect channelling hard currency to the government in Kyiv.

它鼓励美国和其他国家接管乌克兰在IMF分配的特别提款权的，实际上是将硬通货输送到基辅政府。

But the end result of all these appeals is that, for the second quarter of this year, Ukraine has so far totted up grants totalling only about $4.5bn, against a fiscal shortfall of $15bn.

但所有这些呼吁的最终结果是，今年第二季度，乌克兰迄今获得的赠款总额仅为约45亿美元，而财政缺口为150亿美元。

This is not sustainable, admits Mr Marchenko, who fears that if the war lasts more than another “three or four months”, painful measures will be needed, involving huge tax rises and swingeing spending cuts.

马尔琴科承认，这是不可持续的。他担心，如果战争再持续“三四个月”，将需要采取痛苦的措施，包括大幅增税和大幅削减开支。

The real fear is that what has become in recent years a fairly market-driven, freewheeling economy might see a wave of nationalisations, undoing years of hard-fought progress.

真正令人担心的是，近些年来，一个相当市场化、自由放任的经济体可能会出现一波国有化浪潮，破坏多年来的进步。

An even more immediate problem is already, literally, sprouting.

实际上，一个更紧迫的问题已经萌芽。

Across the country, the sowing season for this year’s crop of wheat, barley, sunflowers (for oil) and other grains and staples has been completed.

今年，全国小麦、大麦、葵花(油料)等谷物和主要作物的播种季节已基本结束。

Astonishingly, roughly 80% of the usual crop has gone into the ground, sometimes planted by brave farmers wearing bulletproof vests.

令人惊讶的是，大约80%的常规作物已经播种完毕，有些是勇敢的农民穿着防弹衣种植的。

But what to do with it?

但要怎么处理呢？

Harvesting should be no great problem, since the frontlines have been pushed back and Russia looks unlikely to make further gains.

收获应该不是大问题，因为前线已经被击退，俄罗斯看起来不太可能取得进一步的成功。

The hard part is shipping the stuff out of the country.

最难的是把这些东西运出乌克兰。

The presence of the Russian navy in the Black Sea, as well as the defensive deployment of mines by Ukraine’s navy, means that Odessa, Ukraine’s principal port, is shut down completely.

俄罗斯海军在黑海的存在，以及乌克兰海军的防御性水雷部署，意味着乌克兰主要港口敖德萨已经完全关闭。

The same goes for its second and third ports, located nearby.

位于附近的第二个和第三个港口也是如此。

Berdyansk and Mariupol, the fourth and fifth, are under Russian control.

别尔江斯克和马里乌波尔分别是第四个和第五个，都在俄罗斯的控制之下。

Nor can much grain be stored; the country’s grain silos are mostly full of the recently harvested winter crop, which would normally have been sent abroad by now.

也不能储存太多的粮食；乌克兰的粮仓里大多是最近收获的冬季作物，通常现在应该已经运往国外了。

Mustafa Nayyem, a former journalist and protester turned Ukraine’s deputy infrastructure minister, is in charge of solving the problem.

穆斯塔法·纳耶姆曾是一名记者和抗议者，后来成为乌克兰基础设施部副部长，他负责解决这个问题。

If the grain cannot get out by sea, it will have to travel by road and rail, via Poland, Romania and Hungary.

如果粮食不能通过海路运输，就必须通过公路和铁路运输，途经波兰、罗马尼亚和匈牙利。

But problems abound, he says.

但他表示，存在太多问题了。

The roads cannot handle that much heavy traffic; the alternative ports have limited spare capacity.

道路无法承受那么大的交通流量；替代港口的闲置容量有限。

Worst of all, crossing Ukraine’s frontiers with the eu is arduous.

最糟糕的是，跨越乌克兰与欧盟的边界是一件艰难的事情。

Customs and phytosanitary checks are already causing 10km tailbacks at entry points.

海关和植物检疫检查已经在入境点排队排了10公里。

The club’s rules say that, since Ukraine is not a member, only a limited number of its lorries can enter.

欧盟方面规定，由于乌克兰不是欧盟成员，只有有限数量的乌克兰卡车可以进入。

Bureaucracy is gumming up the works, and unless they are unblocked Ukraine, Europe and indeed the world will face severe food shortages after the harvest in September.

官僚作风正在阻碍这项工作，除非乌克兰的粮食供应畅通无阻，否则欧洲乃至全球在9月份的收成后，将面临严重的粮食短缺。

“We need every country in Europe to allow free access to our trucks,” says the minister.

这位部长说：“我们需要欧洲每个国家都允许我们的卡车自由通行。”

“They don’t seem to understand the sheer amount of wheat that is about to hit them.”

“他们似乎不清楚即将收获的小麦数量。”