2022年经济学人 意大利的债务（在线收听）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Italy’s debt: Whenever it breaks

意大利的债务：无论何时爆发

How inflation and rising interest rates might affect Italy’s finances

通胀和利率上升可能会如何影响意大利的财政

Before the pandemic it was a cause for excitement among economists that the real interest rate governments paid on their debts had fallen below the rate of economic growth in most rich countries, allowing governments to spend more freely and worry less about running up debts.

政府为其债务支付的实际利率已降至大多数富裕国家的经济增长率以下，使得政府支出更自由，并减少对债务积欠的担忧，在疫情暴发前，这曾是令经济学家感到兴奋的一个原因。

But central banks’ battle with inflation today threatens to turn that relationship on its head, making the fiscal position of indebted governments more perilous.

但央行今天与通胀的斗争可能会颠覆这种关系，使负债累累的政府的财政状况更加危险。

When interest rates are below growth rates, governments can run primary budget deficits (that is, deficits before interest payments are taken into account) without the debt-to-GDP ratio necessarily rising.

当利率低于增长率时，政府可能会背负基本预算赤字(即不计利息支付的赤字)，而债务与国内生产总值的比率不一定会上升。

But when rates exceed economic growth, primary surpluses are the only way to keep indebtedness stable.

但当利率超过经济增长时，基本盈余是保持债务稳定的唯一途径。

The higher the starting debt, the more belt-tightening needed.

起始债务越高，越需要勒紧裤腰带。

Fortunately, inflation reduces the real interest rate, and so most countries will gain a fiscal windfall this year.

幸运的是，通胀降低了实际利率，因此大多数国家今年将获得一笔财政意外之财。

Some of their debt, in other words, will be inflated away.

换句话说，他们的部分债务将被通胀抵消。

But if central banks successfully bring inflation down, and if high interest rates endure, things could get more painful.

但如果各大央行成功地降低了通胀，如果高利率持续下去，情况可能会变得更加令人痛苦。

The picture looks especially worrying in Italy.

意大利的情况看起来尤其令人担忧。

The euro zone’s third-largest economy had net public debt worth nearly 140% of GDP last year.

欧元区第三大经济体去年的净公共债务接近GDP的140%。

Its government currently pays about 3.5% to borrow for ten years.

其政府目前的10年期借款利率约为3.5%。

Precisely where Italy’s indebtedness and borrowing costs will settle after the energy crisis is uncertain.

能源危机过后，意大利的债务和借贷成本到底会在哪里解决还不确定。

We’ve been looking at a range of combinations for debt and financing costs, and what they would imply for the country’s budget were growth to match the average IMF forecast during 2022-27, and were inflation to fall to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.

我们一直在研究债务和融资成本的一系列组合，以及如果2022-27年期间经济增长与国际货币基金组织预测的平均水平持平，如果通货膨胀率降至欧洲央行2%的目标，这些组合对该国预算将意味着什么。

In reality, the average tenor of outstanding Italian debt is nearly eight years, so it would take time for its average financing cost to rise.

事实上，意大利未偿还债务的平均期限接近8年，因此其平均融资成本上升需要时间。

At financing costs of 3% or below, Italy can run small primary deficits and still outgrow its debt.

在融资成本为3%或更低的情况下，意大利可以维持小规模的基本赤字，同时上升速度仍能超过债务增长速度。

As interest rates rise, however, stability requires primary surpluses of 2% or more.

然而，随着利率的上升，需要2%或更多的基本盈余才能保持稳定。

The only time Italy has run so tight a budget since the global financial crisis was in 2012, at the height of European austerity.

自全球金融危机以来，意大利唯一一次如此紧缩预算是在2012年，当时正值欧洲紧缩的高峰时期。