2022年经济学人 央行官员与其批评者之间的冲突（1）（在线收听）

Culture

文化板块

Bernanke v Chancellor: Duelling books reveal the clashes between central bankers and their critics

伯南克vs钱塞勒：二人著作之间的竞争揭示了央行官员与其批评者之间的冲突

The Price of Time. By Edward Chancellor.

《时间的代价》爱德华·钱塞勒著。

21st Century Monetary Policy. By Ben Bernanke.

《21世纪的货币政策》本·伯南克著。

There is a particular kind of critic of central banks who says that setting interest rates—and especially setting them low—is an unwarranted interference with the free market.

有一种批评央行的人说，设定利率--尤其是将利率设定在较低水平--是对自由市场的不必要干预。

In a system of paper (and electronic) currency, however, policymakers have no choice but to set what economists call a “nominal anchor”, a peg that determines the value of money.

然而，在纸币(和电子货币)体系中，政策制定者别无选择，只能设定经济学家所说的“名义锚”，即决定货币价值的限定值。

Decades of theory and evidence lie behind the modern approach of pegging interest rates with the ultimate goal of controlling inflation.

将利率与控制通胀这一最终目标挂钩的现代方法背后，是数十年的理论和依据。

Yet nominal anchors are inevitably somewhat arbitrary because paper money has no inherent value.

然而，由于纸币没有内在价值，名义锚必然会有些武断。

The critics who label as artificial the low interest rates that have prevailed in the world economy in recent decades must therefore answer the question: low relative to what?

因此，给近几十年来世界经济中普遍存在的低利率贴上“人为”标签的批评者必须回答一个问题：相对于什么低？

“The Price of Time” is the answer of Edward Chancellor, a historian and financier who has written a book by that name.

“时间的代价”是历史学家兼金融家爱德华·钱塞勒的回答，他曾以这个名字写了一本书。

Humans prefer jam today to jam tomorrow.

比起明天的空头支票，人类更喜欢今天的真金白银。

Interest rates are the reward for deferring gratification, for renting out money that could have been spent today.

利率是对延迟满足的回报，是把本可以花在今天的钱租出去的回报。

When rates fall too low, grave consequences follow: financial instability, higher inequality and pain for savers.

利率降得太低时，严重后果就会随之而来：金融不稳定、不平等加剧和储户的痛苦。

As he makes his case, Mr Chancellor’s panoptic survey of the history of interest, and what classical economists said about it, will not fail to dazzle.

在阐述自己的观点时，钱塞勒对利息历史的全面调查，以及古典经济学家对此的看法，一定会令人眼花缭乱。

The argument, however, is seriously flawed.

然而，这一论点存在严重缺陷。

To see why, look to “21st Century Monetary Policy” by Ben Bernanke, who led America’s Federal Reserve through the global financial crisis from 2006-14 (and a fool in Mr Chancellor’s narrative).

要了解其中的原因，就看看本·伯南克的《21世纪的货币政策》。伯南克在2006-2014年期间领导美联储度过了全球金融危机(而在钱塞勒的叙述中，他是个傻瓜)。

His book is partly a historical account of the past half-century or so of policymaking at the Fed and partly a study of the effectiveness and desirability of unconventional monetary tools, such as quantitative easing, that have grown in importance after the crisis.

他的书有一部分是对过去半个世纪左右美联储政策制定的历史描述，还有一部分是对非常规货币工具的有效性和合意性的研究，例如量化宽松这些在危机后变得越来越重要的工具。

For the likes of Mr Bernanke, the ultimate determinant of interest rates is the global balance between savings and investment which, over time, exerts a magnetic pull on central bankers trying to hit inflation targets.

对于伯南克这样的人来说，利率的最终决定因素是全球储蓄和投资之间的平衡，随着时间的推移，这种平衡会对试图实现通胀目标的央行官员产生磁铁般的吸引力。

Rates have been low in part because desired savings have risen as societies have aged.

利率一直很低，部分原因是随着社会老龄化，人们希望有更多储蓄。

It was Mr Bernanke who, in 2005, suggested that a “global saving glut” might have been weighing on global rates.

正是伯南克在2005年暗示，“全球储蓄过剩”可能正在拖累全球利率。

Mr Bernanke’s framework is more compelling than Mr Chancellor’s, as low or even negative interest rates can co-exist with humanity’s natural short-termism.

伯南克的框架比钱塞勒的更有说服力，因为低利率甚至负利率可以与人性天生的短期主义共存。

Suppose someone has a wage income of 100 in their working life and zero in retirement.

假设某人的工资为100美元，退休时没有收入。

Though they may not target a 50/50 split, they will save to avoid penury.

尽管这类人的目标可能不是花一半存一半，他们也会存点钱以免之后陷入贫困。

Lots of people building up a nest-egg—even one that is small relative to their working incomes—creates an imbalance that can, as a result of market forces, push rates lower than their discount rates.

许多人存养老金这种现象--即使存下来的钱相对于他们的工资来说很少--造成了一种失衡，由于市场力量的作用，这种失衡可能会导致利率低于其贴现率。

“Justice is violated when lenders receive little or nothing,” Mr Chancellor writes.

“贷方获利很少或没有获利时，公正就受到了侵犯，”钱塞勒写道。

He might as well rage against a population pyramid.

他不妨对人口金字塔大发雷霆。