2022年经济学人滞后带来的拖累（2）（打印版）

Moreover, an increase in central-bank’s transparency may be compressing lags.

此外，央行透明度的提高可能会缩短滞后时间。

In America mortgage rates had increased by a full percentage point even before the Fed had raised short-term rates.

在美国，甚至在美联储提高短期利率之前，抵押贷款利率就已经上升了整整一个百分点。

This has not happened in previous cycles, and represents the fastest pricing-in of expectations in at least four decades.

这在之前的经济周期中从未发生过，而且是至少40年来最快的预期定价。

As a result, the housing market has had at least half a year to respond to higher mortgage rates.

房地产市场因此至少有半年的时间来应对抵押贷款利率的上升。

Sure enough, home sales, prices and new construction have all started to fall.

果不其然，房屋销售量、价格和新开工量都开始下降。

In a way, the Fed is lagging the market: its rate increases are, in part, ratifying expectations that are already influencing activity.

在某种程度上，美联储正在落后于市场：它的加息措施在一定程度上是在认可已经在影响经济活动的预期。

None of this is to minimise the risk from lags.

所有这些都不是为了将滞后带来的风险降至最低。

Friedman believed they all but doomed counter-cyclical interventions.

弗里德曼认为，它们几乎注定了反周期干预的失败。

He viewed such attempts as “disturbances with a peculiarly high potential for mischief”.

他认为这样的尝试是“极有可能造成危害的干扰”。

Central bankers are more confident.

而央行官员们对此的信心要高一些。

But persistent inflation does underscore Friedman’s point about the challenges of getting policy right, whether tightening or easing.

但持续的通胀确实突显了弗里德曼观点的重要性，即无论是紧缩还是宽松政策，正确实施政策都具有挑战性。

Today’s woes stem, in part, from aggressive stimulus in 2020 and 2021.

今天的困境部分源于2020年和2021年的激进刺激政策。

The mischief, in other words, can cut both ways.

换言之，这种干扰可以在两方面都起作用。

Doves worry that excessive tightening will lead to a bad recession.

鸽派担心过度紧缩将导致严重的经济衰退。

Hawks fear that a premature halt will lead to continued bad inflation.

而鹰派担心，过早停止加息将导致持续的恶性通胀。

Both worry the Fed will get its timing wrong again, just in diametrically opposite directions.

两方都担心美联储会再次抓错时机，只不过担心的方向截然相反。