VOA科学技术2022 21世纪飓风和台风将会扩展到中纬度地区（在线收听）

A new study suggests that severe storms are likely to start affecting wider areas that include cities like New York, Boston, Beijing and Tokyo.

一项新的研究表明，严重的风暴可能会开始影响更广泛的地区，包括纽约、波士顿、北京和东京等城市。

An international research team predicts that big atmospheric storms called tropical cyclones could move further to the north or south.

一个国际研究小组预测，被称为热带气旋的大型大气风暴可能会进一步向北或向南移动。

It said this is because of the effects of planet-warming climate change.

它表示，这是因为全球变暖的气候变化的影响。

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes tropical cyclones as "organized systems of clouds and thunderstorms" that develop over bodies of water.

美国国家海洋和大气管理局将热带气旋描述为在水体上空发展的“有组织的云层和雷暴系统”。

Major tropical cyclones are declared either hurricanes or typhoons, depending on where the storms happen.

其宣布主要的热带气旋是飓风或台风，这取决于风暴发生的地点。

In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used.

在北大西洋、北太平洋中部和东部，使用“飓风”一词。

In the Northwest Pacific, the storms are called typhoons.

在西北太平洋，风暴被称为“台风”。

The researchers suggest that hurricanes and typhoons could start appearing farther north in the northern half of the world and farther south in the southern half of the world.

研究人员认为，飓风和台风可能会开始出现在北半球的更北边和南半球的更南边。

Those areas contain larger population centers that traditionally are not struck by large hurricanes or typhoons.

这些地区拥有更大的人口中心，传统上不会受到大型飓风或台风的袭击。

Joshua Studholme is a physicist at Yale University's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences.

约书亚·斯塔霍尔姆是耶鲁大学地球与行星科学系的物理学家。

He was the lead writer of the study, which recently appeared in Nature Geoscience.

他是这项研究的主要作者，该研究最近发表在《自然地球科学》上。

Studholme said in a statement the study "represents an important, under-estimated risk of climate change."

斯塔霍尔姆在一份声明中说，这项研究“代表了一个重要的、被低估的气候变化风险。”

"This research predicts that the 21st century's tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case on Earth for the last 3 million years," he added.

他还说：“这项研究预测，21世纪的热带气旋可能出现在比过去300万年来地球上的情况更广泛的纬度范围。”

The researchers note that tropical cyclones form close to the equator in warm, tropical oceans.

研究人员指出，热带气旋形成于赤道附近温暖的热带海洋中。

This usually happens away from the intense effects of the jet streams--strong wind paths that circle the planet.

这通常发生在远离急流——环绕地球的强风路径——的强烈影响的地方。

But the study suggests that warming climates on Earth will create smaller temperature differences between the equator and the poles.

但这项研究表明，地球气候变暖将会使赤道和两极之间的温差变小。

In the summer months this could cause the jet stream to weaken or split.

在夏季的几个月里，这可能会导致急流减弱或分裂。

If this were to happen, it could open "a window in the mid-latitudes for tropical cyclones to form and intensify," the researchers said.

研究人员说，如果这种情况发生，它可能会为“中纬度地区热带气旋的形成和加强打开一扇窗”。

The team reached the findings by examining computer models of warm climates from Earth's distant past.

研究小组通过研究地球遥远过去的温暖气候的计算机模型得出了这一结论。

They also used satellite observation and a range of weather and climate estimates.

他们还使用了卫星观测和一系列天气和气候估计。

The researchers said their models estimated that, during periods with warmer climates, tropical cyclones formed and intensified at higher latitudes.

研究人员说，他们的模型估计，在气候变暖的时期，热带气旋在高纬度地区形成并加强。

These periods of warm weather include the Eocene, which was 56 to 34 million years ago, and Pliocene, 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago.

这些温暖的气候时期包括始新世（5600万至3400万年前）和上新世（530万至260万年前）。

Alexey Fedorov is a professor of oceanic and atmospheric sciences at Yale.

阿列克谢·费多罗夫是耶鲁大学海洋和大气科学教授。

He was a co-writer of the study.

他是这项研究的合著者之一。

He said in a statement that there are still "large uncertainties" about how tropical cyclones will change in the future.

他在一份声明中说，未来热带气旋将会如何变化仍存在“很大的不确定性”。

However, he added that "multiple lines of evidence" suggest more tropical cyclones are likely to happen in mid-latitudes, "even if the total frequency of tropical cyclones does not increase."

然而，他还说，“多条证据”表明，“即使热带气旋的总频率不会增加”，中纬度地区也可能会出现更多的热带气旋。

One leader of the research was Kerry Emanuel, a climate specialist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

麻省理工学院的气候专家克里·伊曼纽尔是这项研究的领导者之一。

Another recent study led by Emanuel suggests that the North Atlantic experienced an increase in hurricanes over the last century.

伊曼纽尔最近领导的另一项研究表明，北大西洋在上个世纪经历了飓风的增加。

That study, published last month in Nature Communications, used historical records to build computer models to create climate conditions for the last 150 years.

上个月发表在《自然通讯》上的这项研究利用历史记录建立了计算机模型，以创造过去150年的气候条件。

Emanuel said he added hurricane "seeds"--conditions that could produce a storm--throughout the models to see how many would lead to storms.

伊曼纽尔说，他在模型中添加了飓风“种子”——可以产生风暴的条件——以观察导致风暴的数量。

The results showed that the number of "intense" Atlantic storms would become more frequent as world temperatures rose.

结果表明，随着全球气温的上升，“强烈的”大西洋风暴将会发生得更加频繁。

I'm Bryan Lynn.

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