2022年经济学人 美国补贴导致欧洲“分裂”(2)（在线收听）

A first possible tack would be to take America to the WTO, in the hope of a ruling that its new subsidies are illegal.

第一个可能的策略是将美国告上世贸组织，希望世贸组织裁定美国新的补贴非法。

Such wranglings are long, dull and unrewarding: the transatlantic battle over aircraft subsidies to Airbus and Boeing lasted 17 years.

这样的争论是漫长、乏味且没有回报的：大西洋两岸围绕空客和波音飞机补贴的争端持续了17年。

By the time it ended in 2021, it was impossible to say who had won (apart from the lawyers).

到2021年这场争端结束时，除了律师，很难说究竟谁是胜者。

Nowadays it is unclear that the WTO even has the capacity to process such a case.

如今，人们甚至不清楚世贸组织是否有能力处理这样的案件。

(Donald Trump, and later Mr. Biden, paralysed its dispute-resolution mechanism by blocking all new appointments of judges to it.)（唐纳德·特朗普，以及后来的拜登，都拒绝任命争端解决机制下上诉机构的新法官，此举让世贸组织的争端解决机制陷入了瘫痪。)And if Europe were somehow to prevail at the WTO, and win permission to retaliate with its own tariffs, it might not want to do so.

就算欧洲能以某种方式在世贸组织获胜，并获得许可，能够利用自己的关税对美国进行报复，它可能也不想这样做。

A trade war would expose a rift between Europeans who are sceptical of globalisation—France, say, which has been pushing for "Buy European" schemes—and others like the Netherlands and Ireland who believe their prosperity depends on open trade.

贸易战将暴露出欧洲（例如法国，一直在推动《购买欧洲商品》法案的进程）和荷兰，爱尔兰等其他国家之间的裂痕：欧洲对全球化持怀疑态度，而荷兰等国家认为其国家繁荣有赖于开放贸易。

Both America and Europe know that China, a common economic rival, is happy to watch them squabble.

美国和欧洲都知道，他们共同的经济对手——中国，对他们的争吵乐在其中。

America's trade envoy, Katherine Tai, has suggested a second possibility for Europe: it should simply respond to the IRA with a jumbo subsidies programme of its own.

美国贸易代表戴琪为欧洲提出了第二种可能性：欧洲应该采取简单一点的措施，利用自己的巨额补贴计划来回应《通货膨胀削减法案》。

That would indeed level the playing field - if Europe could afford it.

这确实能创造公平的竞争环境——前提是如果欧洲能够负担得起。

Some countries can.

有些国家可以做到。

Germany, say, has lots of industry and little debt.

例如德国，它拥有大量的工业，并几乎没有债务。

But if it splurges on aid to domestic firms, that would deal a harsh blow to the EU's single market.

但如果它大力援助国内企业，那将对欧盟单一市场造成沉重打击。

A 200bn Euro ($206bn) German plan to help households and businesses deal with higher energy prices has irked other Europeans.

德国为帮助本国家庭和企业应对能源价格上涨而宣布的2000亿欧元（合2060亿美元）计划惹恼了其他欧洲人。

How can a Slovak firm compete with a German one, given the Slovak government's tiny budget?

在斯洛伐克政府预算微薄的情况下，一家斯洛伐克公司该如何与德国公司竞争？

Here the divide is between big EU countries with deep-pocketed governments and big global firms, and smaller countries that have neither.

分歧在于，欧盟中的大国拥有财力雄厚的政府和大型全球公司，而欧盟中的小国则没有这些。

A third option would be to imitate America's subsidy-fest, but have it funded by the EU.

第三种选择是由欧盟提供资金，和美国一样进行大力补贴。

Some would like a reprise of the NGEU, a 750bn Euro post-pandemic fund raised by joint borrowing that will be repaid mainly by rich countries but will be spent across the bloc.

一些人希望重启“下一代欧盟”计划，这是一项疫情后用于欧洲经济复苏的7500亿欧元资金，通过联合借款筹集。该资金主要由富裕国家偿还，但将用于整个欧盟。

Mere talk of such a scheme has reopened the oldest European rift of all, pitting spendthrift southerners against skinflint northerners who don't want to subsidise them.

仅仅是启动这样一个计划的传言就让欧洲最古老的裂隙重新显现：一边是挥霍无度的南方人，另一边是不想补贴对方的吝啬的北方人。

It looks like a non-starter.

这让事情看起来成功无望。

European grumbling about American protectionism would carry more weight if the EU hadn't itself already devised policies quite similar to Mr. Biden's.

如果欧盟自己还没有制定出与美国《通货膨胀削减法案》相当的政策，那么欧洲对美国保护主义的抱怨将更有分量。

Mr. Macron proclaims the need for "strategic autonomy" so loudly and so often that America has clearly overheard.

马克龙如此高调、如此频繁地宣称需要“战略自主”，美国显然听到了。

No European scheme is as brazenly trade-hampering as the IRA.

没有哪个欧洲制定的计划像《通货膨胀削减法案》那样肆无忌惮地阻碍贸易。

But the EU's planned tariffs on imports from countries with no intention of cutting carbon emissions are protectionism-adjacent, as are new rules designed to keep some foreign firms from investing in the EU.

但欧盟计划向无意削减碳排放的国家征收进口商品的关税，这一行为就像是保护主义的变体，其它一些旨在阻止外国公司在欧盟进行投资的新规定也是如此。

And while it is true that subsidies paid out in Europe are also available to foreign firms, local ones know better how to lobby to get more than their fair share.

虽然欧洲发放的补贴确实可以提供给外国公司，但当地公司更清楚该如何游说，以获得超过合理份额的补贴。

Europe is getting burnt by American policies, but it helped start the fire.

欧洲正因美国的政策到了火烧眉毛的地步，但它自己也是火上浇油的一份子。