2023年经济学人 投资银行的时机（2）（在线收听）

投资银行的时机（2）

    Then there are the capital rules.

    然后是资本规则。

    If bankers have to hoard capital in order to boost buffers there will not be much left to pay dividends or do buy-backs.

    如果银行家们为了增加缓冲而不得不囤积资本，那么就没有多少资金用于支付股息或回购了。

    Bankers are concerned that the rules could even spell the end game for their business.

    银行家们担心，这些规定甚至可能意味着他们业务的终结。

    Jamie Dimon, boss of JPMorgan Chase, America’s biggest bank, has remarked that less regulated competitors, such as growing private-credit firms, should be “dancing in the streets”.

    美国最大的银行摩根大通的老板杰米·戴蒙曾表示，约束较少的竞争对手，如成长中的私人信贷公司，应该已经在“在街上欢乐起舞”。

    Marianne Lake, JPMorgan’s head of consumer banking, has described the situation as “a little bit like being a hostage”.

    摩根大通消费者银行业务主管玛丽安·莱克将这种情况描述为“有点像当人质”。

    The requirement was so shocking at first that “even if it changes a bit, you sort of are grateful for that,” she has admitted, despite the pain it will nevertheless cause your company.

    她承认，这一要求起初非常令人震惊，“即使有一点改变，你也会心存感激”，尽管这将给你的公司带来痛苦。

    The fight over the proposed changes has become ugly.

    围绕拟议改革的争论已经变得非常激烈。

    Although bankers typically lobby behind closed doors, the new requirements have pushed them into open warfare.

    尽管银行家们通常会选择闭门游说，但新要求已将他们推向公开战争。

    They have pointed out that the proposals would quadruple the risk-weighting given to “tax equity” investments, a crucial source of financing for green-energy projects under President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.

    他们指出，这些提案将使“税收股权”投资的风险权重增加四倍，而根据乔·拜登总统的《通货膨胀削减法案》，“税收股权”投资是绿色能源项目的重要融资来源。

    Some lobbyists reportedly may sue the Federal Reserve for failing to follow due process and argue that the regulator should give people more time to comment once it has been followed.

    据报道，一些游说者可能会起诉美联储未能遵循正当程序，并辩称监管机构在遵循程序后应给人们更多时间发表评论。

    These tactics could work.

    这些策略可能会奏效。

    The Fed might water down its plans, or a back-and-forth might push the proposals into a grey zone ahead of America’s presidential election.

    美联储可能会淡化其计划，或者在美国总统大选之前，一来一回将这些提议推入灰色地带。

    The rules are subject to review by Congress, and it will have few days in session next year owing to the primaries, summer recess and the election itself.

    由于初选、夏季休会和选举本身的原因，明年国会会期只持续几天。

    As the odds of a Republican presidency rise, so do the chances that a later review would result in much smaller increases in capital requirements.

    随着共和党总统当选的几率上升，随后评估导致资本要求大幅上调的可能性也在上升。

    Still, an investor might feel queasy at making that bet.

    不过，投资者可能会对这一押注感到不安。

    So one looking at banks might turn his attention to Europe instead.

    因此，关注银行的人可能会把注意力转向欧洲。

    Unlike in America, funding costs have not climbed much, in part owing to weaker competition.

    与美国不同的是，欧洲融资成本并没有攀升太多，部分原因是竞争减弱。

    The result has been a steady stream of earnings upgrades.

    其结果是不断有公司调高收益。

    After nine years of negative rates the return to positive ones has been “like rain in the desert”, says Huw van Steenis of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy.

    奥纬咨询公司的休·范·斯蒂尼斯表示，在经历了9年的负利率之后，正利率的回归就像“沙漠中的甘露”。

    Extra capital requirements from Basel 3 are more modest in Europe.

    巴塞尔协议3的额外资本要求在欧洲更为温和。

    An investor might want to buy shares in a bank, then.

    那么，投资者就可能有意愿购买银行的股票。

    But for the first time in a long time, perhaps he should consider a European one.

    但在很长一段时间里，这也许是他第一次应该考虑一个欧洲银行。、