华盛顿邮报 美国经济真的变好了吗(3)（在线收听）

    So, as the Fed has been raising rates, one of the big impacts of that is on people's mortgages.

    因为美联储一直在加息，这对人们的抵押贷款产生了很大的影响。

    What have we seen in terms of how that's playing out with housing prices?

    关于加息对房价的影响方面，我们看到了什么？

    So, what's been happening in the housing market is that there's a real mismatch between the number of people looking for homes and the number of homes available.

    房地产市场现在的情况是，寻找住房的人数与可用住房的数量之间存在错配。

    What the Fed can do is it cannot build more houses, right?

    美联储能做的就是不要建造更多的房子，对吧?

    So it has to focus on cooling buyer demand.

    美联储必须把重点放在为买家需求降温上。

    It does that by raising interest rates, which in turn lift mortgage rates.

    美联储通过提高利率来实现这一目标，这反过来又会提高抵押贷款利率。

    So that means that if you were a person shopping for a house before rates started going up, maybe you would be able to get a 3% or 4% interest rate on that house.

    这意味着，如果你是一个在利率开始上涨之前买房的人，也许你的房子的抵押贷款利率是3%或4%。

    Now you're looking at something much closer to 7%.

    而现在你看到的抵押贷款利率接近7%。

    That has the effect of causing people to bow out of the market, to say, "Ugh, I think I'm going to stay in my rental a little bit longer or I'm going to stay in the house that I already own a little bit longer."这会导致人们退出买房市场，人们会说：“嗯，我想我会在我租的房子里多待一段时间，我会在我已经拥有的房子里多待一段时间。”

    The goal here is to cool demand for housing so that there is time for more homes to become available.

    这样做的目的是为住房需求降温，以便有时间提供更多的住房。

    That's one of the ways that the Fed can try and slow the housing market and part of the economy.

    这是美联储试图放缓房地产市场和部分经济增长步伐的方法之一。

    And, so, did it work? Has the demand cooled?

    这奏效了吗? 需求降温了吗?

    Yes and no. And like a lot of questions about what is happening out there, housing is a bit of a confusing picture.

    是也不是。就像很多关于现在情况的问题一样，房地产市场的情况有点令人费解。

    So, mortgage rates, as they shot up, absolutely had the effect of cooling demand.

    抵押贷款利率的飙升绝对起到了冷却需求的作用。

    There were a lot of people who were all of a sudden discouraged from entering the market or found themselves priced out altogether.

    很多人突然失去了进入买房市场的勇气，要么就是发现房价太高了，负担不起，被挤出了市场。

    And that was a major shift from what we saw earlier in the pandemic, where you just had these frenzied, you know, elbow-to-elbow buying wars, bidding wars, people trying to get in all cash to get the house.

    这与我们在疫情初期看到的情况有很大的不同，当时你看到的是疯狂的、肘碰肘的购买战、竞标战，人们试图用所有的资金来买房子。

    Now you don't really see very much of that anymore.

    现在你已经很少看到这种情况了。

    Realtors will say that they get a couple of offers on a house, but nothing like these sort of big swings from earlier in the pandemic.

    房地产经纪人说，他们收到了一些房子的报价，但没有像疫情早期那样的大幅波动。

    That allowed for a little bit of a window for more homes to slowly become available and for prices to calm down.

    这为慢慢提供更多房子、稳定房价提供了一点机会。

    But it's still pretty hard to buy a house right now, isn't it?

    但现在买房子还是挺难的，不是吗?

    So, it's still hard to buy a house, but, in theory, it should be getting easier and is already getting easier.

    买房仍然很难，但理论上，买房会变得更容易，而且已经变得更容易了。

    There are about a million new homes that are expected to be available later this year and next, which will help loosen up the supply.

    预计今年晚些时候和明年将有大约100万套新房可供使用，这将有助于放宽供应。

    You have buyers who are not desperate for houses, but are maybe taking a little bit longer to look. They have a few more options as they're looking.

    有些买家并不急着买房，但他们可能会花更长的时间去看房子。他们在寻找房子的过程中会有更多的选择。

    And this might start to resemble a little bit of a new normal.

    这可能开始有点像一种新常态了。

    No one is expecting that mortgage rates will suddenly plummet to those pre-pandemic levels.

    没有人认为抵押贷款利率会突然暴跌至疫情前的水平。

    There is a long way to go to have enough houses available to meet all the people who want them.

    提供足够的住房，满足所有买房者的需求，还有很长的路要走。

    But as long as things keep gradually moving in this direction, we're moving away from this brief housing recession that we saw last year.

    但只要继续朝着这个方向逐渐发展，我们就会摆脱去年那种短暂的房地产衰退的景象。