纽约时报 乌克兰前线的猜谜游戏(1)（在线收听）

    The Ukrainian soldiers watch and wait, nervously peering through a periscope from an icy trench at a forward observation post in eastern Ukraine.

    在乌克兰东部的一个前线观察站，乌克兰士兵在观察和等待，他们在结冰的战壕里紧张地通过潜望镜侦查。

    Western governments have sounded alarms that Russia is prepared to attack Ukraine at any time.

    西方政府已经发出警告，称俄罗斯准备随时攻击乌克兰。

    The Biden administration is considering moving troops, warships and artillery into Eastern Europe and NATO announced on Monday that member countries are sending ships and jets to the region.

    拜登政府正在考虑向东欧派遣军队、军舰和大炮，北约周一宣布，成员国将向该地区派遣军舰和飞机。

    But how, exactly, military action might start has become an anxious guessing game for military analysts, for Western and Ukrainian officials — and not least for Ukrainian soldiers, who are likely to be the first to find out.

    但是，军事行动究竟如何开始已经成为军事分析人士、西方国家和乌克兰官员、尤其是乌克兰士兵的一个令人焦虑的猜谜游戏，他们很可能是第一个找到答案的人。

    “I would rather have peace,” said Ihor, a sergeant who is the Ukrainian unit’s cook and offered only his first name and rank, in keeping with military rules. “I have two kids at home.”

    “我宁愿要和平，”伊霍尔说。他是乌克兰部队的厨师，按照军事规定，他只提供了自己的名字和军衔。 “我家里有两个孩子。”

    If an incursion does come, most military analysts agree it won’t begin with a massive show of force — tanks rolling over the border or a sudden and devastating strike from the air.

    大多数军事分析人士认为，如果入侵真的来了，它不会以大规模的武力展示开始——坦克越过边境或毁灭性的空中突袭。

    Rather, it would start with a more ambiguous, limited action that Moscow would use as justification for a wider intervention.

    相反，它将以一种更为模糊的、有限的行动开始，莫斯科将以此作为更广泛干预的理由。

    Such an action, American and Ukrainian officials say, could come in many different forms — the seizure by Russian-backed separatists of a disputed piece of infrastructure, like an electrical plant, for instance.

    美国和乌克兰官员表示，这样的行动可能会以多种不同的形式出现——俄罗斯支持的分裂分子可能会占领一处有争议的基础设施，比如一座发电厂。

    It could even start invisibly, with gas wafting through the air, if Russia decided to stage an accident at an ammonia plant in this area, and then send in troops under the guise of bringing it under control.

    如果俄罗斯决定在这一地区的一家氨气工厂制造事故，然后以控制事态的名义派遣军队，那么入侵甚至可以在不可见的情况下开始，通过空气中飘出天然气。

    That possibility was raised this month by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.

    乌克兰军事情报机构本月提出了这种可能性。

    Ukraine estimates that Russia has about 127,000 troops near its borders.

    乌克兰估计，俄罗斯在其边境附近约有12.7万名士兵。

    The buildup, said Dmitry Adamsky, an expert on Russian security policy at Reichman University in Israel, “is visible enough to let people imagine a range of scenarios that might happen.

    以色列赖希曼大学的俄罗斯安全政策专家德米特里·亚达姆斯基说，这种集结“足够明显，让人们可以想象可能发生的一系列情况。”

    At the same time, it’s uncertain enough to conceal the strategic intention.”

    与此同时，这种不确定性足以掩盖其战略意图。”

    Russia has repeatedly denied in recent weeks that it has plans to invade Ukraine and said it is Russia whose security is threatened — by NATO exercises near its borders and weapons shipments to Ukraine.

    俄罗斯最近几个星期一再否认有入侵乌克兰的计划，并表示，北约在其边境附近的演习和向乌克兰运送武器威胁到俄罗斯的安全。