纽约时报 乌克兰前线的猜谜游戏(2)（在线收听）

    Analysts say Russia has a rich repertoire of tricks that make it all but impossible to guess a first move.

    分析人士说，俄罗斯拥有实现入侵的丰富技巧，几乎不可能猜到第一步。

    It demonstrated that with its first incursion into Ukraine in 2014.

    该国在2014年首次入侵乌克兰就证明了这一点。

    At the time, masked, mysterious soldiers appeared in Crimea in a military intervention that Russia initially denied but later acknowledged.

    当时，神秘的蒙面士兵出现在克里米亚，参与了一场军事干预行动。俄罗斯最初对此予以否认，但后来予以承认。

    Russian soldiers said to be “vacationing” or “volunteering,” turned up in eastern Ukraine later that year.

    据说是在“度假”或“做志愿者”的俄罗斯士兵在那年晚些时候出现在乌克兰东部。

    In fact, nearly every Soviet and Russian military intervention of the past half century, from the Prague Spring to Afghanistan to the war in Chechnya, has begun with an operation of disguise or misdirection, intended to sow confusion.

    事实上，在过去的半个世纪里，几乎每一次苏联和俄罗斯的军事干预，从布拉格之春到阿富汗，再到车臣战争，都是以伪装或误导行动开始的，目的是制造混乱。

    A limited incursion might also serve Moscow’s goal of dividing NATO allies, with some countries seeing the action as insufficient cause to sanction Russia, and others disagreeing.

    有限的入侵可能也有利于莫斯科分裂北约盟国的目标，因为一些国家认为这一行动不足以成为制裁俄罗斯的理由，而另一些国家则不这么认为。

    President Biden last week hinted at potential divisions within the Western alliance over how to react to a provocation that falls short of an invasion — comments that the U.S. then tried to walk back after a backlash from Europe.

    拜登总统上周暗示，西方联盟内部在如何应对不属于入侵的挑衅方面可能存在分歧。在欧洲的强烈反对下，美国试图收回这一言论。

    For soldiers in the East, where Ukraine has been fighting Russian-backed separatists for nearly eight years, the lack of clarity has made for a nerve-racking time.

    乌克兰在东部地区与俄罗斯支持的分裂分子战斗了近8年，对那里的士兵来说，这种不明情况让他们度过了一段头疼的时期。

    “Maybe it will happen here,” said Lt. Sergei Goshko, who is responsible for civilian affairs on this part of the frontline, and was thus authorized to provide his full name. “Maybe it will happen south of here.”

    “也许会在这里发生，”谢尔盖·戈什科中尉说。他负责前线这部分的民政事务，因此被授权提供他的全名。 “也许入侵会发生在南边。”

    “But we cannot know everything,” he added. “It’s a game of chess where you cannot see the moves in advance. Who will do what to whom? We don’t know.”

    “但我们不可能知道一切，”他补充说。 “这就像一场棋局，你无法事先预知其走法。 谁会对谁做什么? 我们不知道。”

    In one ominous hint of how Russia might justify an invasion, its ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Konstantin Gavrilov, said Sunday that Moscow would respond if its citizens were threatened.

    俄罗斯驻欧洲安全与合作组织大使康斯坦丁·加夫里洛夫周日表示，如果俄罗斯公民受到威胁，莫斯科将会做出回应。这是一个不详的迹象，表明俄罗斯可能会如何为入侵行为辩护。

    Russia has granted citizenship to tens of thousands of people on the separatist side of the eastern Ukraine conflict, any of whom might suffer in an escalation.

    俄罗斯已向乌克兰东部冲突的分裂分子一方的数万人授予公民身份，他们中的任何一个人都可能在冲突升级中受难。

    “We won’t tolerate it if they attack our citizens,” Mr. Gavrilov said.

    “如果他们攻击我们的公民，我们是不会容忍的，”加夫里洛夫说。

    There wouldn’t be another warning, he said. “Only dogs bark. A wolf bites, and that is it.”

    他说，不会再有第二次警告了。 “只有狗叫。 狼咬，仅此而已。”

    Ukrainian officials and U.S. diplomats have focused on one possibility in particular in the region:

    乌克兰官员和美国外交官一直把注意力集中在该地区的一种可能性上:

    an accident at one of the most dangerous industrial sites in eastern Ukraine, an ammonia gas factory in separatist-held territory a few miles from the Ukrainian frontlines.

    乌克兰东部最危险的工业地点之一发生事故，那是一个位于分裂分子控制的地区的氨气工厂，距离乌克兰前线只有几英里。