What’s Next in America’s Unpredictable Presidential Race?

AS IT IS 2016-07-31 What’s Next in America’s Unpredictable Presidential Race?

No one seems to know what to expect in the 100 days before American voters elect a new president.

“There’s never been an election like this,” said presidential historian Jeffrey Engel. He directs the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University in Texas.

On one side, there is Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s candidate for president of the United States. She is the first woman nominated for the office by a major U.S. party. The former secretary of state has promised to unite Americans to overcome economic problems and the terrorism threat.

On the other side is businessman Donald Trump¹, the candidate of the Republican Party. Trump competed for the Republican nomination² earlier this year as an outsider. He promises “to make America great again.” He has promised strong action to fight terrorism, illegal immigration and crime.

High Negatives for Both

Both candidates face high negatives from likely voters in the November 8 elections. When asked, many Americans have questioned, disapproved³ of or rejected their positions.

Only 31 percent of likely voters have a favorable, or good, opinion of Clinton, compared to 34 percent for Trump. Those numbers come from a CBS News poll taken after the Republican national convention, but before the recent Democratic convention.

Joshua Scacco is a political scientist at Purdue University in Indiana. He says many American voters have expressed concern about the Republican nominee⁴. He said they ’’don’t see him having the commander-in-chief qualities” to deal with complex world problems.

If elected, Trump would be the first president without military or government experience, noted⁵ Jeffrey Engel, the presidential historian.

Joshua Scacco said Trump’s Democratic opponent faces questions about trust. He noted that the head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation⁶ said Clinton had been careless handing emails as secretary of state.

Scacco said she must persuade voters she can improve employment and the fight against terrorism after being part of government for so long.

Both candidates played up their opponent’s negatives at their party conventions.

Trump called Clinton a “world class liar,” who cannot solve America’s problems. Trump said only he had the skills and toughness needed.

Clinton questioned whether Trump has “the temperament⁷ to be Commander-in-Chief.” She said he used bankruptcy⁸ laws to avoid paying debts, leaving “working people holding the bag.”

Different Views of America’s Status

The two candidates have very different ideas of America.

“Our convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation,” Trump said. “The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life. Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country.”

Clinton was more upbeat. “So don't let anyone tell you that our country is weak,” she said. “We're not. Don't let anyone tell you we don't have what it takes. We do. And most of all, don't believe anyone who says, ‘I alone can fix it.’”

Over the next three months, the candidates will campaign almost daily -- mostly in swing states. These are states that can swing from (the) Democratic to the Republican side, or back the other way, from one election to the next.

There are plans for three presidential debates during the election campaign this fall. There also will be a debate for the vice⁹ presidential candidates -- Indiana Governor Mike Pence for the Republicans and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine for the Democrats¹⁰.

The debates will be broadcast nationwide so voters can watch the candidates defend their positions and question their opponent.

Supporters Confident

Clinton and Trump supporters say they are hopeful about the November elections. Public opinion surveys show a close race.

Bob Livingston, a Republican and former congressional leader, said voters like Trump’s strong opinions. They trust Trump to negotiate trade agreements that will produce jobs in America, he said.

“Some people are bent¹¹ out of shape about his comments,” Livingston said. “That includes a few Republicans. But Donald Trump is speaking to blue-collar people who haven’t voted Republican in the last 30 years. They feel he’ll fight for them.”

Gary Mauro is leading the Clinton campaign in Texas. He said many speakers at the Democratic convention, notably¹² President (Barack) Obama and his wife Michelle Obama, corrected the “false image that Hillary is cold and not trust worthy¹³.”

“As for Trump, I don’t think he can keep telling people that we need change and that only 'I can bring about that change' and not say how he’s going to do it,” Mauro said. “I don’t think that can work for the long term.”

Past Predictions Were Wrong

But predicting who will win is risky¹⁴. Many political observers were wrong about the year-long nominating process Democrats and Republicans used to choose their candidates.

Few saw Bernie Sanders, the senator from Vermont, fighting so hard and so long against Clinton for the Democratic nomination. And many experts predicted a Republican with more political experience than Trump would win the party’s nomination.

Wayne Steger teaches political science at DePaul University in Illinois. He said the 2016 presidential campaign has been unusual. But this is not the first time two major party candidates faced mostly negative opinions from voters.

Steger noted that, in 1992, Hillary Clinton’s husband Bill had to answer questions about his trustfulness. The future president was asked about having relationships with women other than his wife while he served as governor of Arkansas.

His opponent, then President George H.W. Bush, also had a trust issue because he agreed to a tax increase after saying at the 1988 Republican convention, “Read my lips. No new taxes.”

Clinton won the election, helped by Ross Perot, an independent candidate for the presidency¹⁵. Perot won almost 19 percent of the votes, taking support mostly from Bush.

Smaller parties are also nominating candidates for the presidency. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson received 11 percent in the recent CBS poll, taking equal support from Democrats and Republicans.

Words in this Story

poll -- n. an activity in which several or many people are asked a question or a series of questions in order to get information about what most people think about something

temperament -- n. the usual attitude, mood, or behavior of a person

bankruptcy -- n. a condition of financial failure caused by not having the money that you need to pay your debts

holding the bag -- a phrase that means stuck with the costs of a job or material

grasp -- v. to understand

swing state -- n. a state that has voted for candidates of different parties

bent out of shape -- a phrase meaning angry or annoyed by something

read my lips -- a phrase that means people should pay attention to what you are saying

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

3 disapproved   

v.不赞成( disapprove的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• My parents disapproved of my marriage. 我父母不赞成我的婚事。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She disapproved of her son's indiscriminate television viewing. 她不赞成儿子不加选择地收看电视。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

5 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

6 investigation   

n.调查，调查研究

参考例句：

• In an investigation,a new fact became known, which told against him.在调查中新发现了一件对他不利的事实。
• He drew the conclusion by building on his own investigation.他根据自己的调查研究作出结论。

7 temperament   

n.气质，性格，性情

参考例句：

• The analysis of what kind of temperament you possess is vital.分析一下你有什么样的气质是十分重要的。
• Success often depends on temperament.成功常常取决于一个人的性格。

8 bankruptcy   

n.破产；无偿付能力

参考例句：

• You will have to pull in if you want to escape bankruptcy.如果你想避免破产，就必须节省开支。
• His firm is just on thin ice of bankruptcy.他的商号正面临破产的危险。

9 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

10 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 bent   

n.爱好，癖好；adj.弯的；决心的，一心的

参考例句：

• He was fully bent upon the project.他一心扑在这项计划上。
• We bent over backward to help them.我们尽了最大努力帮助他们。

12 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

13 worthy   

adj.(of)值得的，配得上的；有价值的

参考例句：

• I did not esteem him to be worthy of trust.我认为他不值得信赖。
• There occurred nothing that was worthy to be mentioned.没有值得一提的事发生。

14 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

15 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。