高等教育不再需要理解美国央行的声明

Higher Education No Longer Needed to Understand US Central Bank Statements

Until recently, only highly educated individuals could understand the policy statements of the United States Federal Reserve Board.

The Fed’s policy statements grew longer and the wording became more complex after the recession¹ in 2008. One study even suggested that people needed four years of university studies, or more, to understand them.

The Reuters news agency says that is changing.

Jerome Powell became chairman of the U.S. central bank in February 2018. Since then, the statements have grown less complex and comments made at press conferences are easier to understand, a Reuters study found.

The Fed’s policy statements

The Federal Reserve’s job is to guarantee a safe monetary² and financial system. Every eight weeks or so, its main group, the Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss the health of the U.S. economy. Then it releases a statement about economic conditions. Its comments are studied by economists⁴, investors⁵ and governments around the world.

The change in policy statements comes from Powell’s decision to make the Fed’s communications easier to understand. It also comes from the decision by the bank to end a period of low interest rates and complex financial instruments that were used to support economic growth.

Experts say the simple language may keep financial markets calm because it will remove questions about the bank’s decisions. Others say it may have the opposite effect because speaking simply also has risk.

The wording of statements

In January, readers needed about three years of college to understand the Fed’s policy statement, the Reuters study found. The news agency used a common readability measure called the Flesch-Kincaid grade-level formula.

The formula judges how often a document uses big words and long sentences. It decides the level of education a reader needs to understand the statement.

From the beginning of the 2008 recession until late 2013, the formula found that a reader needed more than four years of college to understand Fed statements. It said that readers needed a PhD, the highest university degree available.

In 2014, Janet Yellen was appointed head of the Federal Reserve. During her leadership, the formula found that a reader needed at least a university degree to understand Fed statements.

Under Powell’s leadership, the statements are much easier to understand. The formula found that the average person required a little higher than a high-school reading level.

Stock market volatility⁶

Researchers believe that in the past that more difficult Fed language led to sharp moves in the value of stock shares. But no one knows if easier to read Fed statements will cause stock market volatility to stop.

“You would expect less volatility from a drop in (difficulty),” said Charles Calomiris, an economist³ at Columbia University in New York. He was explaining the drop in the Flesch-Kinkaid reading levels identified by Reuters.

Calomiris noted⁷, however, that it is difficult even for experts to understand market movements and measure changes in the Fed’s language.

In fact, stock market volatility has increased in recent months. Investors are worried about the direction of Fed policy and the international economy.

David-Jan Jansen is an economist at the Dutch central bank. He found evidence that some interest rates were less likely to change up or down after Powell presented easy-to-read statements to Congress.

"It's not just what you say. It is how you say it," said Jansen.

Yet Jansen and Calomiris both noted a serious problem with the readability study: It does not consider the meaning of the words being used. It only considers the level of education a reader needs to understand them.

So a Fed statement with bad news will cause market volatility if the words are easy to understand or not.

A Fed spokesman⁸ would not comment on the Reuters findings.

Powell said last month that he writes his statements so they can be understood by many people, not just Wall Street and international economists.

“You just have to say it in a way that’s more accessible,” Powell said at a meeting with educators.

Powell’s statement last September said that the U.S. economy was simply strong and interest rates were set to rise. That was easy enough for a U.S. high school student.

But in January, Powell’s statement became more difficult for readers. That was when the bank stopped raising interest rates because it was worried about the American economy.

I’m Susan Shand.

Words in This Story

complicated – adj. hard to understand, explain, or deal with

formula – n. a plan or method for doing or making something

degree – n. an award presented by a college or university after completion of a study program

volatility – n. likely to change in a very sudden or extreme way

accessible - adj. able to be reached

1 recession   

n.（工商业的）衷退（期），萧条（期）

参考例句：

• Manufacturing fell sharply under the impact of the recession.受到经济萧条的影响，制造业急剧衰退。
• A rise in interest rates plunged Britain deeper into recession.利率的提高导致英国经济更加萧条。

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

6 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

7 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

8 spokesman   

n.发言人，代言人

参考例句：

• The government spokesman gave a quick briefing to the reporters.政府发言人向记者们作了情况简介。
• They drew lots to decide who should be their spokesman.他们抽签决定谁是他们的发言人。