澳大利亚的选举胜利者能为放缓的经济注入活力吗?

Can Australia’s Election Winner Energize¹ a Slowing Economy?

Australians have a choice between tax cuts and greater public spending when they vote in general elections on Saturday.

The elections give voters what has been described as the clearest choice on economic policy in years from the two main political parties.

Whoever wins will face an economy growing at likely its slowest rate in 10 years, while the jobless rate has climbed higher. This could lead Australia’s central bank to cut interest rates for the first time since 2016.

Many experts argue that government intervention² in the economy could, in fact, prove helpful.

Australia has avoided an economic recession since 1991. Yet there are signs of trouble, as housing prices slide in the cities of Sydney and Melbourne. In addition, wage growth and consumer spending have slowed.

As a result, economists⁴ say they expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its main interest rate from a record low 1.5 percent later this year. The economists spoke⁵ with the Reuters news agency in late April.

During the election campaign, the center-right Liberal-led ruling coalition⁶ and opposition⁷ Labor⁸ party have each promised budget surpluses. The reason: rising prices for iron ore and coal - the nation’s top export earners.

But while Australian exports are expanding, the rest of the economy is not.

Economic growth is expected to slow to 1.7 percent during the current quarter from one year ago. That would be the weakest growth rate since late 2009.

Voting on wages

Studies of likely voters show Labor holding a narrow lead over the Liberal-National coalition. Experts expect the election to be decided⁹ by just a few seats.

The coalition is promising¹⁰ a series of tax cuts, with personal rate reductions set in the April budget to take effect in July.

The Labor Party is more interventionist. It has promised to end major tax breaks. It proposed to set a living wage above the lowest legal rate of A$18.93 an hour to help people meet their needs and avoid poverty. Labor leader Bill Shorten says this election is a “referendum on wages.”

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says Labor’s wage policies would harm the economy. The Australian Chamber¹¹ of Commerce and Industry supports his position.

Those policies “would force many businesses to choose between cutting the hours of their employees or laying people off,” the business group noted¹² in March.

Different ideas about the role of government

The Liberal-National coalition has publicized its record as a strong economic manager, a message that has affected¹³ voters.

An independent study at the end of April found that ‘managing the economy’ was very important for 33 percent of Australians. In fact, 37 percent of those asked said they trusted the coalition to do the job.

Frank Stilwell is an economist³ and professor with the University of Sydney. He likens concerns about debt and deficits¹⁴ to an “accountant’s view” of the economy.

“Most countries, most of the time, run deficits and that’s fine,” said Stilwell. “The bigger question is how would the winner here respond to continuing depressing economic growth?”

During the 2008 and 2009 financial crisis, the Labor government provided A$8.5 billion in payments to low- and middle-income Australians.

Stilwell said, “It was what we needed, it was very well done and it worked,”

I’m Jonathan Evans.

Words in This Story

consumer – n. someone who uses economic goods and services

quarter – n. a three-month period, such as April through June

referendum – n. a public vote on a proposal or measure

negative – adj. lacking good or promising qualities

manager – n. someone responsible for business activities

accountant - n. a person whose job is to keep and inspect financial records

view – n. a sight; the ability to see something

income – n. earnings

1 energize   

vt.给予(某人或某物)精力、能量

参考例句：

• It is used to energize the city.它的作用是为城市供给能量。
• This is a great way to energize yourself and give yourself more power!这种方法非常棒，可以激活你的能量，让你有更多的活力！

2 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

6 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

7 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

8 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

9 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

10 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

11 chamber   

n.房间，寝室；会议厅；议院；会所

参考例句：

• For many,the dentist's surgery remains a torture chamber.对许多人来说，牙医的治疗室一直是间受刑室。
• The chamber was ablaze with light.会议厅里灯火辉煌。

12 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

13 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

14 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句