美国的老龄化意味着劳动力的减少

Aging Americans Means Shrinking Workforce¹

Americans are getting older, and family size is getting smaller. That means the United States will have less working adults in the future.

By 2030, twenty percent of U.S. residents will be 66 years of age or older. That compares to 13 percent in 2010, and just under 10 percent in 1970.

The aging population could be a concern if Americans expect to have an expanding population, says David Kelly. He is with the investment company J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

“If you're investing in things like the housing industry or the auto² industry and you need an ever-growing population, then you have to adjust to a world in which the U.S. population is growing more slowly,” he said.

Different studies show that an aging population cuts into economic growth, and older workers who stay on the job are often less productive than younger ones.

But as Americans are aging, last year the birth rate nationwide dropped to its lowest level in 32 years. Less than 3.8 million babies were born in 2018, which is two percent less than the year before. Taken as a whole, the population grew only six-tenths of one percent in 2018, compared to 1.2 percent growth in the 1990s.

Kelly said the low birth rate is not necessarily bad news. Looking beyond economics, a growing world population could do more damage to Earth’s environment. He said that U.S. policy makers³ should plan for dealing⁴ with a smaller workforce.

“We really should adapt to a world of slow population growth because it's clearly happening to us,” he said.

What will replace human workers? Like others, Kelly expects the lack of workers to fuel the growth of robotics and artificial intelligence. He said that Americans need to prepare for the U.S. economic growth to slow a little in the future.

Another way to fix the shrinking workforce is to add more legal immigrants. Immigrants usually arrive in the United States when they are of working age.

But this is not an easy solution, because the U.S. Congress and President Donald Trump⁵ continue to disagree over how to deal with immigration issues.

The U.S. economy can easily make changes to deal with the slower population growth, Kelly said. But he worries that politics could get in the way of solutions.

“The real question is a political question,” he notes, “because it seems even as our population matures in years, it seems that our political system gets less mature in terms of thought process.”

I’m Anne Ball.

Words in This Story

resident – n. someone who lives in a city, town or area for a period of time

adjust – v. to change something in a minor⁶ way so it works better

beyond – adv. on the father side; in addition

workforce – n. the group of people who work for an organization or business

artificial intelligence – n. an area of computer science that deals with giving machines the ability to seem like they have human intelligence

mature – adj. having or showing the mental and emotional qualities of an adult

1 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

2 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

3 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

5 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

6 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。