'Blue Shift' From US Mail Ballots Might Cause Election Week Unrest

When voting stations closed in Arizona on Election Day in 2018, Martha McSally appeared to have won a seat in the United States Senate. McSally, the Republican Party's candidate, received the largest number of votes based on results from in-person voting. But her lead disappeared in the days that followed, with the counting of mail-in ballots².

"Electoral corruption³ - call for a new election?" President Donald Trump⁴ wrote on Twitter at the time. His suggestion had no effect. Six days after Election Day, McSally confirmed that she had lost to Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic candidate.

A similar "blue shift" – with blue representing Democrats⁶ -- could play out in the U.S. presidential election on November 3. Some observers say Trump, a Republican, could have the most votes in early election returns but that Democrat⁵ Joe Biden could end up the winner in the days that follow.

Nearly half of Democrats say they plan to vote by mail. Only about one fourth of Republicans plan to do so. That information comes from an opinion study of likely voters by Reuters/Ipsos. Demand for mail-in voting is driven, in part, by fear of infection from the coronavirus in public.

Counting mail-in ballots is often slower because officials must open thick envelopes, inspect the ballots, and confirm voters' identities. The process is slower and more complex than that at polling stations, where voters mark ballots in person.

Biden's campaign is reportedly preparing for Trump to say that the election is being stolen as the lead changes. Even some Republicans worry that Trump might use the situation to question the results if he loses.

"The longer it takes to count absentee ballots, the more the narrative⁷ will take hold among Trump supporters and will be their ‘proof' to question unfavorable election results," said Dennis Darnoi. He is a Republican political strategist based in Michigan.

Trump has made unproven claims that mail voting leads to fraud. Many studies, however, show that voter fraud in the United States is extremely rare.

Trump has not said whether he will respect the election results if he loses.

In more than 30 states, election officials can begin processing or even counting ballots before Election Day. These include states considered "battleground states" -- where races between the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees⁸ have been historically close.

But three states considered among the most competitive - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - bar officials from processing or counting ballots before Election Day. This may create delays in the results.

Rick Hasen is a law professor at the University of California at Irvine. He notes that, "If the election comes down to these states, and everyone is waiting on results, I'm concerned about social unrest. This is especially true if Trump is ahead on Election Day."

Trump campaign spokeswoman Thea McDonald told Reuters news agency that Democrats are creating disorder⁹ by pushing ‘conspiracy theories.'

"President Trump and his campaign are fighting for a free, fair...election in which every valid¹⁰ ballot¹ counts — once," she said.

A winner in the presidential race might be known quickly if states such as Arizona and Florida publish results shortly after polls close. Both states have a long history of mail-in voting.

"The most likely scenario¹¹ is that we'll know who the president is on Election Night," said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida.

Florida election officials, for example, will begin opening and confirming ballots at least three weeks before the election. They are not, however, permitted to count the results to know which candidate is ahead during that time.

U.S. presidential elections are decided¹² by an Electoral College, not the popular vote. This means results in a battleground state like Florida, with 29 of the 270 electors needed to win, could decide the election results once its own vote counts are known.

In Michigan, an effort to process ballots a day before Election Day has failed to move forward. Some Republicans have argued that it might permit local officials to influence the results.

Ruth Johnson is the Republican state senator who proposed the bill to process ballots early. Johnson said she did not know why the state's Republican Senate Majority Leader had yet to act.

"It needs to be a priority, and I believe we do have the votes," she said.

Thea McDonald of the Trump campaign said it is "opposed to election officials knowing - and potentially attempting to change - the running tally¹³ before Election Day."

Words in This Story

shift - n. a change in position or direction

narrative- n. a story that is told or written

envelope - n. an enclosing cover for a letter, card, etc.

strategist -n. a person who is skilled in making plans for reaching a goal

fraud - n. the crime of using dishonest methods to take something valuable from another person

ahead - adv. in the lead in a race or competition

scenario - n. a description of what could possibly happen

priority - n. something that is more important than other things and that needs to be done or dealt with first

potentially - adv. capable of becoming real

tally - n. a recorded count of scores, votes, etc.

1 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

2 ballots   

n.投票表决( ballot的名词复数 )；选举；选票；投票总数v.（使）投票表决( ballot的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They're counting the ballots. 他们正在计算选票。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The news of rigged ballots has rubbed off much of the shine of their election victory. 他们操纵选票的消息使他们在选举中获得的胜利大为减色。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

4 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

5 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

6 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

8 nominees   

n.被提名者，被任命者( nominee的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She's one of the nominees. 她是被提名者之一。 来自超越目标英语 第2册
• A startling number of his nominees for senior positions have imploded. 他所提名的高级官员被否决的数目令人震惊。 来自互联网

9 disorder   

n.紊乱，混乱；骚动，骚乱；疾病，失调

参考例句：

• When returning back,he discovered the room to be in disorder.回家后，他发现屋子里乱七八糟。
• It contained a vast number of letters in great disorder.里面七零八落地装着许多信件。

10 valid   

adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的

参考例句：

• His claim to own the house is valid.他主张对此屋的所有权有效。
• Do you have valid reasons for your absence?你的缺席有正当理由吗？

11 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

12 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

13 tally   

n.计数器，记分，一致，测量；vt.计算，记录，使一致；vi.计算，记分，一致

参考例句：

• Don't forget to keep a careful tally of what you spend.别忘了仔细记下你的开支账目。
• The facts mentioned in the report tally to every detail.报告中所提到的事实都丝毫不差。