UN: India to Have World’s Largest Population later This Year

The United Nations estimates India will pass China to have the world's largest population sometime later this year. This comes from the U.N. Population Fund's State of the World Population report.

Both countries have over 1.4 billion people. But India will have about 3 million more people than China sometime around the middle of 2023. The last time India counted its population through a census¹ was 2011. It is not possible to say exactly when India will overtake China. Together, the countries combine for about one third of the world's population.

China has been the world's largest country since at least 1950. That is the first year the U.N. issued population numbers.

India's population is four times larger than it was when the country gained independence 76 years ago. Recent guesses said India would not surpass China in population until later this decade, but China's birth rate has gone down. While India's birth rate is also going down, China's population is getting older. China's population decreased last year for the first time in about 60 years.

India has 254 million people between the ages of 15 and 24. That is the most in the world. India's fertility rate – the average number of children each woman gives birth to – has been decreasing since 1960. But the country's medical system is improving. More babies are surviving their first year of life. The infant mortality rate has gone down over the past 30 years.

The country could become an economic power. But experts are concerned that there are not enough jobs for young Indians. If the population grows and jobs do not, many people could fall into poverty. Right now, the Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE) says only 40 percent of working-age Indians have jobs.

Mahesh Vyas is the center's director. He called the growing population a "demographic dividend²." But he said the country has failed to create enough jobs to see gains from its young workers. He noted³ that the number of jobs available in India over the last six years has remained at about 405 million.

India has changed from an impoverished⁴ nation in 1947 to Asia's third largest economy, valued at $3 trillion. The country exports computer software and vaccines⁵. Millions of people have moved from poverty to the middle class as the number of educated people has grown.

Poonam Muttreja is head of the Population Foundation of India. She said the country must plan now for its young people. The country needs to invest in jobs and education.

"This large population will need a huge investment in skills for them to take advantage of the opportunities that will come up in the economy," she said. She added that India needs to pay attention to women and girls as the population grows so they are not "pushed into early marriages and pregnancies⁶, which limit their aspirations⁸."

The U.N. asked over 1,000 Indians questions about their concerns related to population growth. Sixty-three percent said they were worried about economic issues, followed by the environment and health and human rights.

In China, a foreign ministry⁹ spokesperson responded to the U.N.'s report and noted that the most important thing is not a country's population, but its ability to get the most out of the people it has.

"The population is important," said Wang Wenbin. "So is talent," he said, noting "quality" is more important than "quantity."

Words in This Story

census –n. a count of a nation's people

decade –n. a period of 10 years

birth rate –n. the number of babies born in a year

demographic –n. information or qualities taken together about a large group

dividend –n. a regular payment from some kinds of investments

impoverished –adj. being in a state of poverty, having little money

aspiration⁷ –n. a goal or hope of doing something

talent –n. a special ability or skill that a person has

quantity –n. the number of something, such as people in a country

1 census   

n.(官方的)人口调查，人口普查

参考例句：

• A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
• The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。

2 dividend   

n.红利，股息；回报，效益

参考例句：

• The company was forced to pass its dividend.该公司被迫到期不分红。
• The first quarter dividend has been increased by nearly 4 per cent.第一季度的股息增长了近 4%。

3 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

4 impoverished   

adj.穷困的，无力的，用尽了的v.使（某人）贫穷( impoverish的过去式和过去分词 )；使（某物）贫瘠或恶化

参考例句：

• the impoverished areas of the city 这个城市的贫民区
• They were impoverished by a prolonged spell of unemployment. 他们因长期失业而一贫如洗。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

6 pregnancies   

怀孕，妊娠( pregnancy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Since the wartime population needed replenishment, pregnancies were a good sign. 最后一桩倒不失为好现象，战时人口正该补充。
• She's had three pregnancies in four years. 她在四年中怀孕叁次。

7 aspiration   

n.志向，志趣抱负；渴望；(语)送气音；吸出

参考例句：

• Man's aspiration should be as lofty as the stars.人的志气应当象天上的星星那么高。
• Young Addison had a strong aspiration to be an inventor.年幼的爱迪生渴望成为一名发明家。

8 aspirations   

强烈的愿望( aspiration的名词复数 )； 志向； 发送气音； 发 h 音

参考例句：

• I didn't realize you had political aspirations. 我没有意识到你有政治上的抱负。
• The new treaty embodies the aspirations of most nonaligned countries. 新条约体现了大多数不结盟国家的愿望。

9 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。