VOA新闻杂志2024--UN: World Population Expected to Reach 10.3 Billion in 2080s

UN: World Population Expected to Reach 10.3 Billion in 2080s

The United Nations is predicting the world's population will reach 10.3 billion in the 2080s.

The prediction appears in a new U.N. report. The report also suggests that the population will then slightly decrease to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century.

John Wilmoth is head of the U.N. Population Division, which prepared the report. He told The Associated Press (AP) that there is a high probability¹ that the world's population will reach its height, or peak, within the current century. He said the probability of that happening is about 80 percent. Wilmoth described that estimate as "a major change" compared to predictions from 10 years ago. At that time, the estimated probability was about 30 percent.

U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif recently spoke² about the report at a briefing. He said the expectation that the world's population in 2100 will be lower than previously³ thought has "important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet."

The world's population has continued to grow during the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022. Since then, it has increased about 2.5 percent to 8.2 billion.

The report notes the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories. These include China, Germany, Japan and Russia. Within this grouping, the total population is estimated to drop 14 percent over the next 30 years.

In another 48 countries and territories, the population is predicted to peak between 2025 and 2054. Those countries include Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam.

For the remaining 126 countries and territories, the population is expected to increase through 2054. The countries in this grouping include the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report said these areas would see their populations peak in the second half of the century or later.

For nine of these nations, the U.N. estimates the populations will double between 2024 and 2054.

Wilmoth said these differences are notable⁴. But he said, "it's important to understand that all populations are following a similar path."

The U.N. report suggests the earlier population peak is predicted for several reasons. These include lower fertility levels in some of the world's largest countries, especially China. Estimates for China suggest the country's population will drop sharply⁵, from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.

The report noted⁶ that worldwide, women are having an average of one less child than they did in 1990. In addition, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 in over half of all countries and territories. This is a level experts have identified as being necessary for a country's population to keep its size without migration⁷.

Wilmoth said the report shows that nearly 20 percent of the world has "ultra-low" fertility, with women having fewer than 1.5 live births. In China, the current number is about one birth per woman.

Words in This Story

implication - n. a result or effect that seems likely in the future

sustainability - n. the quality of causing little or no damage to the environment and therefore able to continue for a long time

fertility - n. the quality of being able to produce young

1 probability   

n.可能性，可能发生的事，概率

参考例句：

• The probability that it will rain today is high.今天下雨的可能性很大。
• He must calculate the probability of failure.他必须计算一下失败的概率。

2 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

3 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

4 notable   

adj.值得注意的，著名的；n.名人，要人

参考例句：

• His achievement is very notable.他的成就是非常显著的。
• He wrote and published the essay under notable's name.他假托名人写文章发表。

5 sharply   

adj.锐利地，急速；adv.严厉地，鲜明地

参考例句：

• The plane dived sharply and rose again.飞机猛然俯冲而后又拉了起来。
• Demand for personal computers has risen sharply.对个人电脑的需求急剧增长。

6 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

7 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。