Polls Indicate Tight US Presidential Race

By Jim Malone

Two new public opinion polls suggest the race between President Bush and Democrat¹ John Kerry is a dead heat. The new surveys also appear to reveal some of the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates.

A poll by The New York Times and CBS News gave Senator Kerry a narrow 45 to 44 percent lead over President Bush. But the president's job approval rating fell to 42 percent, the lowest of his presidency².

In a second survey, the so-called Battleground Poll sponsored by George Washington University, the two men are in a dead heat at 48 percent each.

The polls suggest the president's strength continues to be his handling of the war on terrorism, although he also appears to be getting a slight boost from the improving domestic economy.

Senator Kerry appears to be chiefly benefiting from public dissatisfaction with the president. However, large numbers of people in both surveys said they believe the Massachusetts Democrat often says what he thinks voters want to hear.

President Bush insists the war in Iraq has helped make the United States safer from terrorist attacks, a point he reasserted at the NATO summit on Tuesday. "A free and sovereign Iraq is a decisive defeat for extremists and terrorists because their hateful ideology³ will lose its appeal in a free and tolerant and successful country," he said.

The latest surveys indicate the outcome of the November election will hinge on three major issues, the situation in Iraq, the war on terrorism and the domestic economy.

In the Battleground Poll, President Bush held an advantage on both Iraq and terrorism. But those surveyed gave Senator Kerry an advantage on the economy, especially job creation.

Senator Kerry took his campaign to Chicago on Tuesday. "We have to stand up for a great purpose, to make America stronger at home and respected in the world," he said. "We are a country of the future. We are optimists⁴. We are the can-do people. We know what we can do when we put our minds to it. Let us go out and get the job done. Let America be America again."

Democrats⁵ say they are encouraged by the latest poll results that appear to show that the president is vulnerable as he bids for a second term.

Celinda Lake is a leading Democratic political strategist who helped conduct the bipartisan Battleground Poll.

"And so there is a real challenge here for the president either to convince voters that he is doing a good job or that the things that are going wrong are not his fault," she noted⁶. "And in fact, some of the most dramatic data here is the solid majority of voters who think that the country is going in the wrong direction."

Republican pollster Ed Goeas works with Celinda Lake on the Battleground survey. He says Republicans can take heart from the fact that President Bush has weathered a few difficult months and is still even with Senator Kerry in the polls.

"The overwhelming focus of news stories being on Iraq, and not necessarily positive, not necessarily the best three months that you could point to in terms of positive messages for Bush, not from his campaign but generated by the news media and events in the news media," he added. "Certainly, to come out of this time even [with Kerry] I think is, above all, a kind of a very positive situation."

In both of the new surveys, a large majority said they had already made up their minds more than four months before Election Day. With so few undecided voters to compete for, both parties are already emphasizing grassroots efforts to make sure party loyalists get to the polls in November.

Jim Malone, VOA News, Washington.

注释：
a dead heat 不分胜负的比赛
The New York Times《纽约时报》
CBS Columbia Broadcasting System哥伦比亚广播公司
sponsor 发起
dissatisfaction 不满
Massachusetts 马萨诸塞州
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization 北大西洋公约组织
decisive 决定性的
extremist 过激分子
ideology 思维方式
outcome 结果
hinge 连接
stand up for 支持
vulnerable 易受攻击的
bid for 许诺以获支持
strategist 战略家
bipartisan 两党连立的
convince 使信服
pollster 民意调查者
compete for 为……竞争

 

1 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

2 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

3 ideology   

n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识

参考例句：

• The ideology has great influence in the world.这种思想体系在世界上有很大的影响。
• The ideal is to strike a medium between ideology and inspiration.我的理想是在意识思想和灵感鼓动之间找到一个折衷。

4 optimists   

n.乐观主义者( optimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even optimists admit the outlook to be poor. 甚至乐观的人都认为前景不好。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Optimists reckon house prices will move up with inflation this year. 乐观人士认为今年的房价将会随通货膨胀而上涨。 来自辞典例句

5 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。