2006年VOA标准英语-US: Iran Could Have Nuclear Bomb in Four Years

By Gary Thomas
Washington
03 October 2006

The top U.S. intelligence official says Iran could have a nuclear weapon within four to nine years, but that it still has time to turn away from that path. 

National Intelligence Director John Negroponte (file photo)

Speaking in his top floor office overlooking the Potomac River, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte says Iran is determined¹ to get nuclear weapons and will have them soon if not deterred² from its current course.

"We do not have any fast facts that could demonstrate to you a particular date by which we are certain Iran will have a nuclear weapon," he said.  "But yes, it is our judgment³, based on all the information available to us, that Iran is determined to acquire nuclear weapons and, secondly⁴, that they are on a path to achieve that within the next several years.  The estimate that we have made is that somewhere between 2010 and 2015 is when we judge Iran is likely to have a nuclear weapon if it continues on its current course."

The United States has been trying to round up support in the U.N. Security Council for sanctions on Iran.  Parallel efforts are also underway for a diplomatic solution.  The five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany are offering incentives⁵ to get Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, a critical step to building nuclear weapons. 

Iran denies it seeks nuclear weapons, saying it only wants atomic energy for peaceful purposes.  Iran has refused to halt enrichment, although Tehran has floated the idea of uranium enrichment by another country on Iran's behalf.

Negroponte says that even though Iran does not yet have any nuclear weapons capability⁶, evidence that it is moving in that direction is persuasive⁷.

"You have to have insights into intention, you have to look at past behavior," he added.  "I mean, among the factors we consider in the case of Iran is that in the past they've had a secret military program until it was revealed.  We know that for 20 or 30 years Iran has been interested in acquiring nuclear capability.  You can judge from their procurement⁸ practices.  There is a whole variety of indicators⁹ that you can look at to get some sense of exactly what the intentions of a country are."

But former National Security Council staffer Gary Sick, who worked under three presidents, says the hard intelligence on Iran's nuclear intentions is not yet there.
 
"If there was really hard evidence that Iran was building a nuclear weapon, I think that we would know about it for sure," he said.  "I think there would be a lot of evidence from the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency].  There would be specific evidence of specific sites that need to be visited.  There would be photographic evidence, and the like.  We do not have any of that.  That does not prove that they are not building a weapon or that they would not in the fullness of time decide to do that.  But I think that we are talking about intentions here.  And I, for one, find it not easy to read Iran's intentions."
 
Asked if the intelligence failure on Iraq complicates¹⁰ convincing people of Iran's intentions, Negroponte admits that people do raise that issue, but adds that the intelligence system is much improved.

"We have done quite a bit of work on 'lessons learned' from the situation in Iraq, different mechanisms¹¹ and procedures to improve the quality of our intelligence collection and analysis and our judgments," he added.  "And, secondly, I think our principal partners and friends in the international community share with us exactly the same concern about Iran's intentions."

Intelligence Director Negroponte says a diplomatic solution to the issue is still possible.

"This does not rule out the possibility that at some point in the current diplomatic context that Iran might decide to forego its nuclear enrichment program in exchange for some kind of accommodation with the United States, the Europeans, and other members of the United Nations Security Council and the international community," he explained.

Gary Sick, who now teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, says the matter of Iran's nuclear intentions is not yet at the level of crisis, as world media often label it.  He describes it as a problem, and one that is solvable if the United States and Iran would sit down for serious negotiations¹². 

But Washington says that without uranium enrichment suspension, there will be no direct U.S. participation¹³ in talks with Iran.

In Gary Thomas' next report of this three-part series, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte discusses Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the resurgent Taleban.

1 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

2 deterred   

v.阻止，制止( deter的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• I told him I wasn't interested, but he wasn't deterred. 我已告诉他我不感兴趣，可他却不罢休。
• Jeremy was not deterred by this criticism. 杰里米没有因这一批评而却步。 来自辞典例句

3 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

4 secondly   

adv.第二，其次

参考例句：

• Secondly,use your own head and present your point of view.第二，动脑筋提出自己的见解。
• Secondly it is necessary to define the applied load.其次，需要确定所作用的载荷。

5 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

6 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

7 persuasive   

adj.有说服力的，能说得使人相信的

参考例句：

• His arguments in favour of a new school are very persuasive.他赞成办一座新学校的理由很有说服力。
• The evidence was not really persuasive enough.证据并不是太有说服力。

8 procurement   

n.采购；获得

参考例句：

• He is in charge of the procurement of materials.他负责物资的采购。
• More and more,human food procurement came to have a dominant effect on their evolution.人类获取食物愈来愈显著地影响到人类的进化。

9 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

10 complicates   

使复杂化( complicate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• What complicates the issue is the burden of history. 历史的重负使问题复杂化了。
• Russia as a great and ambitious power gravely complicates the situation. 俄国作为一个强大而有野心的国家，使得局势异常复杂。

11 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

13 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。