2006年VOA标准英语-Iran's President Flexes Political Muscle in Nuc

By Gary Thomas
Washington
12 June 2006
 
  
  
The United States and its European allies have offered Iran a package of incentives¹ to get Tehran to abandon any ambition to build nuclear weapons.  Iran has not rejected the package outright², but is standing³ firm against any preconditions for talks.  Iran's tough stance is an apparent reflection of the political muscle of Iran's president after only one year in office.

--------------------------------------------

Determining who is making policy in Tehran on the nuclear issue is difficult to gauge⁴.  Decision-making in Iran is an opaque⁵ process, and analysts⁷ must decipher the Iranian leadership just as a generation of analysts before tried to read the thinking of the Politburo of the now-vanished Soviet⁸ Union.

Hooshang Amirahmadi, director of Rutgers University's Center for Middle Eastern Studies, believes there are several competing centers of power in Iran.  He says decisions about something as critical as the nuclear issue are reached by consensus⁹, but that the final say still rests with Supreme¹⁰ Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"Given the structure of the regime, it will be the (supreme) leader, it will be Ahmadinejad, it will be (Hashemi) Rafsanjani, it will be the national security council, it is the parliament," Amirahmadi says. "I think it's a joint¹¹ decision.  They all have accepted this road, except I think the last call will always come from the leader so long as he's there."

Analysts say President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems to be wielding¹² considerable authority on the issue.  Hooshang Amirahmadi says President Ahmadinejad is using presidential power far more effectively than any of his predecessors¹³, including the reformist-minded Mohammad Khatemi.

"This man has used every piece of the power the presidency¹⁴ has," Amirahmadi says. "And because he has the right wing and military people behind him, not as a commander but just as a friend, he is obviously acting¹⁵ more powerfully than any previous president -- certainly more powerfully than Khatemi."

Ahmadinejad was the mayor of Tehran and a local politician with no national experience when he stunned¹⁶ observers by winning the presidential election one year ago.  Ken¹⁷ Katzman, an Iran analyst⁶ at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, says Khatemi took a much more cautious approach on the nuclear issue than President Ahmadinejad.

"Under Khatemi's government (the strategy was) let's not get sanctioned, let's not get isolated¹⁸, even if that means our nuclear program advances very slowly or not at all," Katzman says. "Now it's completely changed.  Basically, the strategy of Iran now is, we want our nuclear program to make progress.  And hopefully we will avoid major penalties, we will try to avoid major penalties.  But the primary goal is to make progress on the technology right now and not have the program frozen.  And it is a distinct difference since Ahmadinejad took power."

There is broad consensus in the international community that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.  Iran denies this and says it is only asserting its right to peaceful nuclear energy. 

The United States also took a new approach when it offered to join the European talks with Iran on the issue, but only if Tehran first freezes its uranium enrichment, which it recently resumed.  Iran says it will not accept any preconditions for talks.  However, analysts say there is still enough ambiguity¹⁹ in Iran's response that talks cannot yet be ruled out.

Hooshang Amirahmadi says President Ahmadinejad is taking a big gamble in pushing for his strategy on the nuclear issue.

"If Ahmadinejad was to fail in this process of negotiation²⁰ with the U.S., he will pay for it dearly, actually, in the very worst way," Amirahmadi says. "But if he succeeds in this process, then he will obviously become known as someone who changed Iran's history, in a way."

The Bush Administration has said it is keeping all options open, which includes the possibility of military action against Iran.  While any such action is still seen a long ways off, Ken Katzman says the Iranian leadership is thinking about such a possibility, however unlikely.

"Iran is not necessarily as scared of a U.S. strike on its nuclear facilities, as I believe it is scared of a U.S. strike on its conventional capability²¹," Katzman says. "If the U.S. were to strike its conventional capabilities²² and render it no longer a Gulf²³ power, a Caspian power, Iran would really be in many ways defenseless and not a power at all, whether it had a nuclear weapon or not.  And I think that this is what Iran is really nervous about."

If Iran is indeed seeking a nuclear weapons capability, estimates vary on when it might achieve that goal, ranging from as low as four years, as U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte said recently, to as high as 10 years

1 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

2 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

3 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

4 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

5 opaque   

adj.不透光的；不反光的，不传导的；晦涩的

参考例句：

• The windows are of opaque glass.这些窗户装着不透明玻璃。
• Their intentions remained opaque.他们的意图仍然令人费解。

6 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

7 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

8 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

9 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

10 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

11 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

12 wielding   

手持着使用（武器、工具等）( wield的现在分词 )； 具有； 运用（权力）； 施加（影响）

参考例句：

• The rebels were wielding sticks of dynamite. 叛乱分子舞动着棒状炸药。
• He is wielding a knife. 他在挥舞着一把刀。

13 predecessors   

n.前任( predecessor的名词复数 )；前辈；（被取代的）原有事物；前身

参考例句：

• The new government set about dismantling their predecessors' legislation. 新政府正着手废除其前任所制定的法律。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Will new plan be any more acceptable than its predecessors? 新计划比原先的计划更能令人满意吗？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

15 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

16 stunned   

adj. 震惊的，惊讶的 动词stun的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The fall stunned me for a moment. 那一下摔得我昏迷了片刻。
• The leaders of the Kopper Company were then stunned speechless. 科伯公司的领导们当时被惊得目瞪口呆。

17 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

18 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

19 ambiguity   

n.模棱两可；意义不明确

参考例句：

• The telegram was misunderstood because of its ambiguity.由于电文意义不明确而造成了误解。
• Her answer was above all ambiguity.她的回答毫不含糊。

20 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

21 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

22 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

23 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。