2006年VOA标准英语-Experts Keep Close Tabs on North Korean Missile

By Kurt Achin
Seoul
28 June 2006

World leaders have expressed concern for weeks over the possibility of a North Korean missile test. Beyond satellite images of the missile launch base, however, relatively¹ little is known about Pyongyang's prospective² launch plan.

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Satellite image provided by IKONOS purports³ to show Taepodong Launch Complex in North Korea  
  
Weapons experts in South Korea and the United States think the ballistic missile sitting on a North Korean launch pad is a Taepodong-2.

Kim Taewoo, of the Korea Institute for Defense⁴ Analyses in Seoul, says there are more than three decades of history behind the Taepodong.

"North Korea began indigenous⁵ development of missiles during the 1970s. During the '90s, North Korea successfully developed the Rodong missile," said Kim Taewoo.  "And then, we witnessed the test-firing of the Taepodong-1 missile in 1998."

That Taepodong-1, which flew 1,300 kilometers directly over Japan, is believed to have had a range of about 2,000 kilometers. Experts think the Taepodong-2 missile now on the launch pad may have double that range - meaning it could reach as far as the U.S. state of Alaska.

North Korea has not fired a long-range missile since 1999, although it has tested several smaller rockets.

The possibility of a North Korean launch has unsettled its neighbors and the United States. Despite being extremely poor, the communist state has a large military and is suspected of having an arsenal⁶ of thousands of missiles and rockets that can go a few hundred kilometers, as well as several mid-range weapons.

Pyongyang, which says it is threatened by the United States, has frequently said it is prepared to use its weapons.

A launch would complicate⁷ efforts to restart negotiations⁸ on ending Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programs. North Korea has refused to return to talks with the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea.

Some political analysts⁹ think North Korea is using the threat of a launch to push the United States into bilateral¹⁰ talks. Washington says it will only talk to Pyongyang within the framework of the six-party negotiations.

Whatever Pyongyang's motives¹¹, technical experts say there are likely to be certain clues to indicate a launch is about to take place.

Chae Yeon-seok, former director of the Korea Aerospace¹² Research Institute in Seoul, says first, the launch area would be cleared.

He says the framework supporting the missile would first be taken away, allowing the missile to stand on its own. Though the removal of the structure may difficult to see from satellites, he adds, it would be a clear indication a launch is imminent¹³.

L. David Montague, former president of the missile division of the U.S. company Lockheed Martin, says there may be other signals as well.

"They're going to be monitoring telemetry and that sort of thing so you would expect to see an increase in activity in radio traffic. Presumably they might even put a ship out there somewhere, to observe," he said.

Many news reports have quoted intelligence estimates of the missile's fuel status. Montague rejects speculation¹⁴ that fueling the missile puts pressure on Pyongyang to launch to avoid having the fuel degrade. He says the missile probably uses fuel that would allow it to sit on the launch pad indefinitely.

"As far as I know they're using kerosene¹⁵ and some oxidizer that is not unstable¹⁶, so I just can't imagine that there's any specific time limit there," he added.

Chae, of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, agrees the missile's tanks can be filled or emptied as North Korea chooses. He adds that the fuel probably weighs about 50 tons - about 90 percent of the missile's total weight.

He says most missile frames have pipelines¹⁸ through which fuel can be directly injected into the rocket. If there is no such pipeline¹⁷, it is an indication the launch facility is antiquated¹⁹.

Recent reports have cited satellite images of dozens of trucks believed to be fueling the North Korean missile. 

The Taepodong-2 is a multi-stage rocket, meaning it sheds empty sections as fuel is depleted²⁰. It should exit the earth's atmosphere quickly before descending²¹ in a gradual curve back to earth.

David Montague thinks the international community is becoming unduly²² alarmed by the possible test. He says a single test cannot produce a serious advancement²³ in Pyongyang's missile capability²⁴.

"One test means nothing in the grand scheme of things," he continued.  "Typically in the United States, if we were building a ballistic missile we wanted to have confidence in, we would have 20 flight tests before we were satisfied we had found all the design flaws, so to speak."

Instead, says Montague, a North Korean missile launch could yield a windfall of information for the United States intelligence community.

Among other things, it would reveal how far North Korean missile technology has progressed, and how much further it has to go before the communist nation becomes a more serious threat.

Weapons experts, diplomats²⁵ and intelligence officials in Asia and the United States say until there is a launch, there is no way to know exactly North Korea's plans, motives or abilities. One senior U.S. diplomat in Seoul said Wednesday that Pyongyang may be hesitating about a launch because of international pressure

1 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

2 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。

3 purports   

v.声称是…，（装得）像是…的样子( purport的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• She purports to represent the whole group. 她自称代表整个团体。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The document purports to be official but is really private. 那份文件据称是官方的，但实际上是私人的。 来自辞典例句

4 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

5 indigenous   

adj.土产的，土生土长的，本地的

参考例句：

• Each country has its own indigenous cultural tradition.每个国家都有自己本土的文化传统。
• Indians were the indigenous inhabitants of America.印第安人是美洲的土著居民。

6 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

7 complicate   

vt.使复杂化，使混乱，使难懂

参考例句：

• There is no need to complicate matters.没有必要使问题复杂化。
• These events will greatly complicate the situation.这些事件将使局势变得极其复杂。

8 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

9 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

10 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。

11 motives   

n.动机，目的( motive的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• to impeach sb's motives 怀疑某人的动机
• His motives are unclear. 他的用意不明。

12 aerospace   

adj.航空的，宇宙航行的

参考例句：

• The world's entire aerospace industry is feeling the chill winds of recession.全世界的航空航天工业都感受到了经济衰退的寒意。
• Edward Murphy was an aerospace engineer for the US Army.爱德华·墨菲是一名美军的航宇工程师。

13 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

14 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

15 kerosene   

n.(kerosine)煤油，火油

参考例句：

• It is like putting out a fire with kerosene.这就像用煤油灭火。
• Instead of electricity,there were kerosene lanterns.没有电，有煤油灯。

16 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

17 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

18 pipelines   

管道( pipeline的名词复数 )； 输油管道； 在考虑（或规划、准备） 中； 在酿中

参考例句：

• The oil is carried to the oil refinery by pipelines. 石油通过输油管输送到炼油厂。
• The oil carried in pipelines. 石油用管道输送。

19 antiquated   

adj.陈旧的，过时的

参考例句：

• Many factories are so antiquated they are not worth saving.很多工厂过于陈旧落后，已不值得挽救。
• A train of antiquated coaches was waiting for us at the siding.一列陈旧的火车在侧线上等着我们。

20 depleted   

adj. 枯竭的, 废弃的 动词deplete的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• Food supplies were severely depleted. 食物供应已严重不足。
• Both teams were severely depleted by injuries. 两个队都因队员受伤而实力大减。

21 descending   

n. 下行 adj. 下降的

参考例句：

• The results are expressed in descending numerical order . 结果按数字降序列出。
• The climbers stopped to orient themselves before descending the mountain. 登山者先停下来确定所在的位置，然后再下山。

22 unduly   

adv.过度地，不适当地

参考例句：

• He did not sound unduly worried at the prospect.他的口气听上去对前景并不十分担忧。
• He argued that the law was unduly restrictive.他辩称法律的约束性有些过分了。

23 advancement   

n.前进，促进，提升

参考例句：

• His new contribution to the advancement of physiology was well appreciated.他对生理学发展的新贡献获得高度赞赏。
• The aim of a university should be the advancement of learning.大学的目标应是促进学术。

24 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

25 diplomats   

n.外交官( diplomat的名词复数 )；有手腕的人，善于交际的人

参考例句：

• These events led to the expulsion of senior diplomats from the country. 这些事件导致一些高级外交官被驱逐出境。
• The court has no jurisdiction over foreign diplomats living in this country. 法院对驻本国的外交官无裁判权。 来自《简明英汉词典》