VOA常速英语2007-IMF Predicts Global Economy to Slow

By Barry Wood
Washington
17 October 2007

The International Monetary¹ Fund has released its semi-annual global economic forecast, marking it down by nearly .5 percent, mainly because of a slowdown in the United States.  VOA's Barry Wood has more. 

Global growth is expected to slow to 4.8 eight percent in 2008, from the 5.2 percent advance of this year.

For the first time, says the IMF, fast growing China and India are the principal contributors to global growth.  Those economies have been growing at a more than nine percent annual rate, a pace expected to moderate only slightly in 2008.

IMF chief economist² Simon Johnson says the U.S. slowdown has added to downside risks in the world economy.  He says the recent turbulence³ in financial markets may not yet be fully⁴ contained.  The U.S. treasury⁵ secretary and central bank chief are warning of further problems in the housing and home mortgage sectors⁶. 

Johnson says while the August and September turbulence in U.S. financial markets spread to Western Europe, it has not had much impact on Asia and most emerging market economies.

"Emerging markets have made tremendous progress [in strengthening their financial systems] and I think that progress is partly why the shocks did not jump that particular fire break, the fire break that separates industrialized from emerging markets," he said.  "Going forward, I would not want to assume that that fire break will always hold."

The IMF does not foresee that soaring oil prices will push the world economy into recession.  Major economies, it says, have boosted energy conservation so that economic growth is no longer so heavily linked to the price of oil.

In 2005 and 2006, the world economy grew at its fastest pace in 40 years.  That recovery, says the IMF, is still intact, but there are more uncertainties⁷ now than two years ago.

IMF economists⁸ say the Chinese currency is undervalued and its exchange rate needs to rise at a faster pace.  They generally applaud the 20 percent decline since 2002 in the value of the dollar.  They say its decline has been orderly and has contributed to an easing of financial imbalances.  The dollar's decline has reduced the U.S. trade deficit⁹ from seven percent to 5.5 percent of U.S. economic output.

China, however, aided by a weak renminbi, is still accumulating huge reserves as its trade surplus continues to rise.

The IMF forecast is released twice a year in advance of meetings of world finance ministers.  

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

4 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

5 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

6 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

8 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。