2007年VOA标准英语-Intelligence Estimate Warns Iraq Could Get Wors

By Gary Thomas
Washington
02 February 2007

A new U.S. intelligence estimate says that the chaotic¹ situation in Iraq could deteriorate² further unless the warring sectarian parties compromise.  But it says that the current political climate makes such reconciliation³ difficult.  VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports from Washington.

 
An Iraqi army soldier kicks the door of a house during a search operation, 30 Jan 2007, two days after a raging battle in the town of Zarqa north of the holy city of Najaf
A new U.S. intelligence estimate says the security situation in Iraq will continue to deteriorate in the next 12 to 18 months unless the warring factions⁴ compromise. But it also says that even if violence does recede⁵ in that period, animosities between Shi'ite and Sunni Muslim groups make reconciliation difficult for Iraqi political leaders.

The report says Iraqi forces will be "hard-pressed" to execute increased responsibilities for security, particularly in reining⁶ in Shi'ite militias⁷.

The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) is the first such report on Iraq in two and one-half years.  An NIE represents the highest collective judgment⁸ of the 16 agencies that make up the U.S. intelligence community.  A summary of the estimate's key judgments⁹ was made public Friday.

The release of portions of the estimate came amid growing political debate in Congress over President Bush's plan to send an additional 21,000 troops to Iraq in an effort to stabilize¹⁰ the situation.

The NIE warns of a more rapid deterioration¹¹ of security if U.S. forces were suddenly pulled out of Iraq.  The public summary makes no judgment of the possible effect of a U.S. troop increase in Iraq.

General Peter Pace, chairman of the U.S. military Joint¹² Chiefs of Staff, said the intelligence estimate was used in the deliberations on the Bush Administration's new Iraq policy.

 
Defense Secretary Robert Gates, left, accompanied by Joint Chiefs Chairman General Peter Pace, gestures during a news conference at the Pentagon
"Their ideas that are codified¹³ in the National Intelligence Estimate that was released today, classified release today, were very much part of the dialogue that led to the decisions," he noted¹⁴.

National Security Adviser¹⁵ Stephen Hadley said the picture painted in the estimate is accurate, but that the Bush Administration plan for Iraq is the only viable¹⁶ option to stabilize the country.  He says that will be a tough task, but the plan can succeed.

"Even if we get the violence down, the NIE says the [Iraqi] forces will be hard-pressed to come forward with reconciliation," he noted.  "We agree with that, but we think there's no alternative but to press them hard to do that reconciliation.

The NIE says the situation has become so complicated in Iraq, with multiple warring sectarian factions, attacks on U.S. troops, and ordinary criminality, that the term civil war is inadequate¹⁷ to describe what is taking place there.

The intelligence estimate says Iranian support for armed Shi'ite militias has clearly intensified¹⁸ the conflict.  But the NIE judges that internal sectarian animosities are fueling the violence and threatening stability more than the involvement of Iran and Syria.

1 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

2 deteriorate   

v.变坏；恶化；退化

参考例句：

• Do you think relations between China and Japan will continue to deteriorate?你认为中日关系会继续恶化吗？
• He held that this would only cause the situation to deteriorate further.他认为，这只会使局势更加恶化。

3 reconciliation   

n.和解，和谐，一致

参考例句：

• He was taken up with the reconciliation of husband and wife.他忙于做夫妻间的调解工作。
• Their handshake appeared to be a gesture of reconciliation.他们的握手似乎是和解的表示。

4 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

5 recede   

vi.退(去)，渐渐远去；向后倾斜，缩进

参考例句：

• The colleges would recede in importance.大学的重要性会降低。
• He saw that the dirty water had begun to recede.他发现那污浊的水开始往下退了。

6 reining   

勒缰绳使（马）停步( rein的现在分词 )； 驾驭； 严格控制； 加强管理

参考例句：

• "That's a fine bevy, Ma'm,'said Gerald gallantly, reining his horse alongside the carriage. "太太！好一窝漂亮的云雀呀！" 杰拉尔德殷勤地说，一面让自己的马告近塔尔顿的马车。
• I was a temperamental genius in need of reining in by stabler personalities. 我是个需要由更稳重的人降服住的神经质的天才。

7 militias   

n.民兵组织，民兵( militia的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The troops will not attempt to disarm the warring militias. 部队并不打算解除战斗中的民兵武装。 来自辞典例句
• The neighborhood was a battleground for Shiite and Sunni militias. 那里曾是什叶派和逊尼派武装分子的战场。 来自互联网

8 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

9 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

10 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

11 deterioration   

n.退化；恶化；变坏

参考例句：

• Mental and physical deterioration both occur naturally with age. 随着年龄的增长，心智和体力自然衰退。
• The car's bodywork was already showing signs of deterioration. 这辆车的车身已经显示出了劣化迹象。

12 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

13 codified   

v.把（法律）编成法典( codify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• In the meantime, however, Kennecott had been codified elsewhere in the Act. 然而，“肯尼考特”一案已被编人法案。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Congress has since codified this holding. 从那时以来，国会编纂整理了最高法院的这一裁定。 来自英汉非文学 - 行政法

14 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

15 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

16 viable   

adj.可行的，切实可行的，能活下去的

参考例句：

• The scheme is economically viable.这个计划从经济效益来看是可行的。
• The economy of the country is not viable.这个国家经济是难以维持的。

17 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。

18 intensified   

v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Violence intensified during the night. 在夜间暴力活动加剧了。
• The drought has intensified. 旱情加剧了。 来自《简明英汉词典》