2007年VOA标准英语-Intelligence Estimate Says al-Qaida Intends to

By Gary Thomas
Washington
17 July 2007

A new U.S. intelligence estimate says al-Qaida remains¹ determined² to mount attacks on major targets in the United States, especially if it can acquire weapons of mass destruction. VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports on the intelligence community's latest conclusions on al-Qaida's strength and reach.

The publicly released portions of the new National Intelligence Estimate say al-Qaida's determination to attack the United States is undiminished. Ted³ Gistaro, the intelligence officer who wrote the report, says counter-terrorism efforts have hampered⁴ al-Qaida, but it still remains the major threat to the United States.

"It has constrained⁵ al-Qaida, and caused a number of terrorist groups in addition to al-Qaida to perceive the U.S. as a more difficult target, but despite that we see an undiminished intent on the part of al-Qaida to try and attack us here at home. And so we concluded that al-Qaida is and will remain the most serious threat to the homeland," he said.

The estimate says al-Qaida has reconstituted itself as a center of global Islamic terrorism in bases deep inside Pakistan's largely lawless tribal⁶ areas along the Afghan border.

But Gistaro says al-Qaida is not stronger now than it was right after September 11th, 2001, as some earlier news reports had suggested.

"The [intelligence] community did not make the judgment⁷ that al-Qaida is stronger than at any time since 9/11 - did not discuss that, did not make that judgment," he said.

Joint8 Regional Intelligence Center (file photo)" hspace="2" src="/upimg/allimg/070719/0944401.jpg" width="210" vspace="2" border="0" />

Personnel work in an unsecured training area of the Los Angeles Joint Regional Intelligence Center (file photo)

Intelligence officials say all 16 U.S. agencies that deal in intelligence or counter-terrorism unanimously concurred⁹ in the report's key judgments¹⁰.

A 2006 National Intelligence Estimate on al-Qaida said the global jihadist movement was becoming decentralized and diffuse¹¹. Gistaro says that appears to have changed as al-Qaida has become more organized again and seeks to extend its reach and contacts, particularly with the group calling itself al-Qaida in Iraq.

"I think the relationship can be elastic¹² at times. I think certainly two years ago we described it as being more decentralized, more of a franchisee¹³ type of relationship. I think one of the implications of al-Qaida core [leadership] having a more secure safe haven¹⁴ in Pakistan is that it's able to reconnect those lines of communication," he said.

White House Homeland Security Adviser¹⁵ Fran Townsend says the new intelligence estimate highlights the need for continuing vigilance against al-Qaida's terrorist threats.

"We are facing a persistent¹⁶ terrorist enemy led by al-Qaida that remains driven and intent on attacking the homeland and that continues to adapt and improve its capabilities¹⁷," she said.

But Peter Zeihan, an analyst¹⁸ with the private intelligence firm Stratfor, says the public portions of the National Intelligence Estimate highlight intentions, not capabilities.

"If you go through the NIE report with a fine tooth comb, you'll notice that the word 'intent' is thrown around a lot, but the word 'capabilities' never pops up. And that's how we see it. The intent of al-Qaida to leverage¹⁹ all these groups that want to be associated with it, such as al-Qaida in Iraq, is definitely there. The intent of al-Qaida Prime, the apex²⁰ leadership, to launch another major attack in the United States, is certainly there. What they lack is the capability," he said.

Democrats²¹ and Republicans both seized on the intelligence estimate to bolster²² their respective arguments over Iraq war policy. Republicans said the report highlights the continued need to confront al-Qaida in Iraq. Democrats say it underscores how the war in Iraq created new terrorists there while allowing al-Qaida to re-group in Pakistan.

1 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

2 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

3 ted   

vt.翻晒，撒，撒开

参考例句：

• The invaders gut ted the village.侵略者把村中财物洗劫一空。
• She often teds the corn when it's sunny.天好的时候她就翻晒玉米。

4 hampered   

妨碍，束缚，限制( hamper的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The search was hampered by appalling weather conditions. 恶劣的天气妨碍了搜寻工作。
• So thought every harassed, hampered, respectable boy in St. Petersburg. 圣彼德堡镇的那些受折磨、受拘束的体面孩子们个个都是这么想的。

5 constrained   

adj.束缚的,节制的

参考例句：

• The evidence was so compelling that he felt constrained to accept it. 证据是那样的令人折服，他觉得不得不接受。
• I feel constrained to write and ask for your forgiveness. 我不得不写信请你原谅。

6 tribal   

adj.部族的，种族的

参考例句：

• He became skilled in several tribal lingoes.他精通几种部族的语言。
• The country was torn apart by fierce tribal hostilities.那个国家被部落间的激烈冲突弄得四分五裂。

7 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

8 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

9 concurred   

同意（concur的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• Historians have concurred with each other in this view. 历史学家在这个观点上已取得一致意见。
• So many things concurred to give rise to the problem. 许多事情同时发生而导致了这一问题。

10 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

11 diffuse   

v.扩散；传播；adj.冗长的；四散的，弥漫的

参考例句：

• Direct light is better for reading than diffuse light.直射光比漫射光更有利于阅读。
• His talk was so diffuse that I missed his point.他的谈话漫无边际，我抓不住他的要点。

12 elastic   

n.橡皮圈，松紧带；adj.有弹性的；灵活的

参考例句：

• Rubber is an elastic material.橡胶是一种弹性材料。
• These regulations are elastic.这些规定是有弹性的。

13 franchisee   

n.特许经营人

参考例句：

• Two groups discussing what qualities a Franchisee should have.两个小组在讨论被特许人需要具备什麽品质。
• Information on prices and conditions of the products,services and equipment provide for the franchisee.向被特许人提供产品、服务、设备的价格条件等情况。

14 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

15 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

16 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

17 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

18 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

19 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

20 apex   

n.顶点，最高点

参考例句：

• He reached the apex of power in the early 1930s.他在三十年代初达到了权力的顶峰。
• His election to the presidency was the apex of his career.当选总统是他一生事业的顶峰。

21 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。