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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
By Gary Thomas
Washington
14 February 2008
Voters in Pakistan are set to go to the polls Monday in elections for the lower house of parliament and the four provincial1 assemblies. As VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports, the elections and their aftermath hold potential dangers for a nation that has been through a series of crises recently, including the murder of a popular opposition2 figure.
In the past year, Pakistan has been rattled3 by a power struggle between the judiciary and the president, the armed occupation of a mosque4 by Islamic militants5 in the heart of the capital, the imposition of emergency rule, a surge in suicide bombings, a growing insurgency6 in tribal7 lands, and the assassination8 of the country's best-known opposition figure.
Recent independent polls of Pakistani voters reflect wide dissatisfaction with President Pervez Musharraf, pessimism9 about their economic situation, insecurity about personal safety, and deep cynicism about the fairness of the elections.
One poll by the U.S.-based International Republican Institute has Mr. Musharraf's approval rating at only 15 percent.
Mr. Musharraf is not on the ballot10, having been re-elected in November by a national assembly and four provincial assemblies packed with his supporters, but his party, the PMLQ., is. Its primary opponents are the Pakistan Peoples Party, the PPP, the party of assassinated11 former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, and the PMLN, headed by Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister who was once Ms. Bhutto's chief political rival.
The International Republican Institute's Middle East and North Africa Programs deputy director, Scott Mastic, says the assassination of Ms. Bhutto on Dec. 27 has had a clear effect on voters.
"You could say there is even a sort of groundswell of public sympathy, I would say, in the aftermath of the assassination, and that is translated into support for the PPP," said Scott Mastic. "On the whole, though, support for opposition parties, including PMLN. and PPP, is just much higher right now than support for the governing coalition12 of parties."
The opposition has accused pro-Musharraf forces of trying to manipulate the election's outcome. And, according to the IRI poll, 79 percent of surveyed voters believe the elections will have been rigged if Mr. Musharraf's party wins the most seats.
A longtime associate of Ms. Bhutto's who collaborated13 with her on her just-published final book, Mark Siegel, tells VOA such figures make massive vote fraud very difficult.
"The magnitude of the rigging will have to be so grand that the whole world would see that the election would be illegitimate," he said. "You know, Benazir always thought that Musharraf would try to rig. But under these conditions, she would probably say that he could not rig it enough to steal the election completely."
The polls have struck a raw nerve with Mr. Musharraf, who while reiterating15 his pledge of fair elections, sharply denounced the surveys by international organizations.
"Declaring winning parties, candidates, is malicious16," he said. "It is malicious. It disturbs our peace. It cannot be done. It must not be done because you are giving unnecessary hopes, expectations, raising expectations of parties and people."
Most analysts17 say that if the vote is legitimate14, the PPP will emerge with the largest number of seats and form a coalition that will put up longtime party stalwart Makhdoom Amin Fahim as the candidate for prime minister.
But a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Daniel Markey, points out the past bitter rivalry18 between the Bhutto and Sharif parties indicates the coalition could prove fractious and unsteady.
"In the event that you did get an opposition sweep, both the PPP and PMLN would feel an obligation to get rid of Musharraf," he said. "But both of them would also recognize in the back of their minds that as soon as they get rid of him, they will be at each others' throats. They have no love for each other. And they will be looking past that initial decision, past the Musharraf decision, to decide what is good for them as parties. And they may decide that keeping him around is more beneficial than removing him right away."
And, analysts add, the army will be waiting and watching from the sidelines, ready to intervene if it feels necessary, as it has for much of Pakistan's 60 years of existence.
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1
provincial
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adj.省的,地方的;n.外省人,乡下人 | |
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2
opposition
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n.反对,敌对 | |
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3
rattled
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慌乱的,恼火的 | |
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4
mosque
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n.清真寺 | |
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5
militants
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激进分子,好斗分子( militant的名词复数 ) | |
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insurgency
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n.起义;暴动;叛变 | |
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tribal
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adj.部族的,种族的 | |
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assassination
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n.暗杀;暗杀事件 | |
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9
pessimism
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n.悲观者,悲观主义者,厌世者 | |
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ballot
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n.(不记名)投票,投票总数,投票权;vi.投票 | |
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assassinated
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v.暗杀( assassinate的过去式和过去分词 );中伤;诋毁;破坏 | |
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12
coalition
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n.结合体,同盟,结合,联合 | |
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13
collaborated
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合作( collaborate的过去式和过去分词 ); 勾结叛国 | |
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14
legitimate
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adj.合法的,合理的,合乎逻辑的;v.使合法 | |
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15
reiterating
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反复地说,重申( reiterate的现在分词 ) | |
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16
malicious
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adj.有恶意的,心怀恶意的 | |
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17
analysts
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分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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18
rivalry
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n.竞争,竞赛,对抗 | |
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