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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Israeli politics and Mideast peace efforts have been thrown into turmoil1 following Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's pledge to step down in September. VOA's Jim Teeple reports Ehud Olmert will leave office tarnished2 by corruption3 and many Israelis say his premiership has been a failure.
Israeli politicians are not wasting time when it comes to jockeying over who will succeed Ehud Olmert. Opposition4 leader Benjamin Netanyahu who heads the right-wing Likud Party says new elections should be called immediately.
Most polls show the Likud Party winning a new national election but for now Ehud Olmert's centrist Kadima Party will remain in power - at least until a new Kadima Party leader is chosen at a party convention on September 17. Reuvan Hazen, a professor of Political Science at Jerusalem's Hebrew University, says the party convention will likely decide Kadima's future.
"The Kadima Party has only one thing that keeps it together right now and that is not an ideology5 or a leader but its hold on power. If it does not stay together and form a new government, immediately after electing a new leader it will lose the next elections," said Hazen.
Kadima party leadership change
The two leading candidates to lead the party and succeed Mr. Olmert are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz. Polls say Livni is the most popular politician in Israel, and has a slight lead over Mofaz inside Kadima. However Tamir Sheaffer who also teaches politics at Hebrew University says Mofaz might be the more electable candidate, because Livni is not popular with conservatives like the religious Shas Party, which holds the balance of power in the governing coalition6.
"The ultra-religious Shas Party will have more problems going with a coalition with Tzipi Livni than to go with Mofaz - they clearly prefer Shaul Mofaz. Therefore it is possible that Shaul Mofaz will have more chances to form a coalition," said Sheaffer.
Most analysts7 say any new coalition - if one can be formed - will have a short political life and new elections are likely by early next year.
The peace process
Ehud Olmert announced he was stepping down just as Israeli and Palestinians mediators were starting a meeting in Washington - continuing a series of talks aimed at reaching a comprehensive peace agreement between the two sides by the end of this year.
U.S. and Palestinian participants said following the meeting they were confident the process begun last year at the Annapolis Mideast Peace Conference will continue. However Reuvan Hazen of Hebrew University says that is not likely - not only because of the new political reality in Israel - but because most Israeli leaders do not have any confidence in the leadership of moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
"Well it is quite unlikely, not only because of what is going on inside Israel, but also because of the lack of real progress in these talks and the inability of Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) to produce anything viable8, nor to bring Gaza and the West Bank together," said Hazen.
Conflict resolution
Hazen says one area of Mideast diplomacy9 that might get a boost from Ehud Olmert leaving office could be ongoing10 Israeli talks with Syria. A new Kadima leader he says could put the issue of peace with Syria before Israel's electorate11 next year - potentially resolving the decades-long conflict. According to Reuvan Hazen that is something Ehud Olmert could never do because he says most Israelis no longer have any confidence in his leadership.
"His entire tenure12 was erased13 within 60 days of taking office when the war in Lebanon began," he said. "His personal financial scandals; the reports that showed he was a failure as prime minister; the inability of the Kadima Party to succeed; all of this coming after a very successful and popular prime minister in the form of Ariel Sharon. Ehud Olmert a few weeks after he leaves office will probably be forgotten quickly."
While his political obituary14 is all but written Ehud Olmert is still Israel's prime minister for the next two months. In that capacity he says he will still work for peace with the Palestinians even though it is doubtful given his current lame-duck status he would be able to negotiate substantive15 concessions16 that would be required for any peace agreement to succeed.
Mr. Olmert also says he will continue to fight allegations that he misused17 thousands of dollars of political contributions he received several years ago from a U.S. citizen involved in political fund raising. He will get his chance soon; Israeli police say they will shortly question the prime minister for the fourth time about the allegations that have put an end to his political career and could send him to jail once he steps down as prime minister.
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1
turmoil
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| n.骚乱，混乱，动乱 | |
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2
tarnished
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| （通常指金属）（使）失去光泽，（使）变灰暗( tarnish的过去式和过去分词 )； 玷污，败坏 | |
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corruption
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| n.腐败，堕落，贪污 | |
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opposition
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| n.反对，敌对 | |
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ideology
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| n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识 | |
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coalition
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| n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合 | |
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analysts
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| 分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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viable
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| adj.可行的，切实可行的，能活下去的 | |
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diplomacy
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| n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕 | |
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ongoing
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| adj.进行中的，前进的 | |
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electorate
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| n.全体选民；选区 | |
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tenure
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| n.终身职位；任期；(土地)保有权，保有期 | |
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erased
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| v.擦掉( erase的过去式和过去分词 )；抹去；清除 | |
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obituary
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| n.讣告，死亡公告；adj.死亡的 | |
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substantive
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| adj.表示实在的；本质的、实质性的；独立的；n.实词，实名词；独立存在的实体 | |
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concessions
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| n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权 | |
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misused
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| v.使用…不当( misuse的过去式和过去分词 )；把…派作不正当的用途；虐待；滥用 | |
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