VOA标准英语2009年-Hopes High, Violence Low, But Problems Remain a

This week marks the sixth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that deposed¹ Saddam Hussein and established a fledgling democracy, but also unleashed² political, ethnic³ and sectarian tensions that caused years of devastating⁴ violence. As the anniversary passes, Iraq seems to be emerging from the worst of the bloodshed, and U.S. troops are preparing to leave, but some experts caution against declaring victory just yet.
　
The Guards of Honour of the Iraqi National Forces parade as they fly the Iraqi flag (file photo)

These days, nearly all the headlines coming out of Iraq are positive, military, police and civilian⁵ casualties all down, the economy improving, preparations for another round of elections proceeding⁶ well, and U.S. troops preparing to scale back their role and fully⁷ withdraw within three years.

"We are close to sustainable security, but we're not there yet," said Lieutenant⁸ General Lloyd Austin, the number two U.S. commander in Iraq. He says U.S. troops will continue to train Iraqi forces, and provide them with air support and other capabilities⁹ they don't have. But the emphasis now is on long-term security provided by the Iraqis themselves.

"I think sustainable security looks a lot like the Iraqi security forces having the capability¹⁰ and the capacity to do this for themselves in the future. We will be here to mentor¹¹ them, to provide them enablers where required, and so yes, I am confident that we can get the job done," he said.

In fact, that is what President Obama ordered last month when he announced that U.S. combat troops will leave Iraq by August of next year, to be followed by a full U.S. withdrawal¹² by the end of the following year. The president said by then, U.S. goals in Iraq should have been achieved.

"This strategy is grounded in a clear and achievable goal shared by the Iraqi people and the American people: an Iraq that is sovereign, stable, and self-reliant," he said.

There has been a lot of progress in Iraq during the last two years, due mainly to the surge of U.S. forces, a new counterinsurgency approach and improvements in Iraq's government and security forces. But some analysts¹⁴, including former State Department official Wayne White, now of the Middle East Institute, say it is too soon to declare victory, and the road out of Iraq may be as difficult as the war's early years were.

"There are a tremendous amount of unknowns," he said. "And too many people are simply acting¹⁵ as if it's over or we won or are successful, when we've got a lot of bridges to cross. I see trouble. In question is to what degree will we see trouble. Will we see violence that is so significant that it can not be contained by national police and Iraqi army forces, and requires U.S. intervention¹⁶?"

White is not confident that Iraq's security forces will be ready to take full responsibility for their country's security in the coming years.

"The mistake that people should not make is putting too much emphasis on the proficiency¹⁷ of Iraqi security forces. We did that, you know, back in '05, '06 and it got us nowhere," he said.

But another analyst¹³ believes the president's plan has a good chance of working.

"The good news is that the war is coming to an end. The kind of grassroots, bottom-up violence that we saw throughout '03, '04, '05, '06, '07, really has largely ended," said Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution.

O'Hanlon cautions against being too optimistic. But he also says another year-and-a-half of help from U.S. combat forces, and a further year-and-a-half with U.S. trainers and support troops, should give the Iraqis enough time to solve their remaining problems, including the growing Arab-Kurd dispute in the north and ongoing¹⁸ attacks by militant¹⁹ groups.

"I think there's a good chance, although I would want to keep, first of all, an open mind about a couple of things, starting with the fact that I'm very glad that after 18 more months we will still have 50,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and the concept of a gradual withdrawal will continue to be our guiding philosophy," he said.

Pentagon officials are quick to say the progress in Iraq is still "fragile," although less fragile than a year ago. U.S. Defense²⁰ Secretary Robert Gates says there are still problems to solve, and the "roots of democracy" in Iraq are still "relatively²¹ shallow." But he said Wednesday that after what he called six "difficult and painful" years, Iraqis can look forward to a better future.

"I believe that the Iraqi people today, with all that pain in the past, have a future that they have probably never had before. The prospects²² seem to get better every day that the Iraqis will solve these problems politically and not with guns. And that's a much different kind of life," Gates said.

Secretary Gates says Iraqis elect their own government, their leaders respect the law, and the country has a chance for strong economic growth. As Iraq enters its seventh year of war, he predicted the country will emerge much better off by the time U.S. troops finish their scheduled withdrawal at the end of 2011, nearly nine years after they arrived.

1 deposed   

v.罢免( depose的过去式和过去分词 )；（在法庭上）宣誓作证

参考例句：

• The president was deposed in a military coup. 总统在军事政变中被废黜。
• The head of state was deposed by the army. 国家元首被军队罢免了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 unleashed   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The government's proposals unleashed a storm of protest in the press. 政府的提案引发了新闻界的抗议浪潮。
• The full force of his rage was unleashed against me. 他把所有的怒气都发泄在我身上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

4 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

5 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

6 proceeding   

n.行动，进行，(pl.)会议录，学报

参考例句：

• This train is now proceeding from Paris to London.这次列车从巴黎开往伦敦。
• The work is proceeding briskly.工作很有生气地进展着。

7 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

8 lieutenant   

n.陆军中尉，海军上尉；代理官员，副职官员

参考例句：

• He was promoted to be a lieutenant in the army.他被提升为陆军中尉。
• He prevailed on the lieutenant to send in a short note.他说动那个副官，递上了一张简短的便条进去。

9 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

10 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

11 mentor   

n.指导者，良师益友；v.指导

参考例句：

• He fed on the great ideas of his mentor.他以他导师的伟大思想为支撑。
• He had mentored scores of younger doctors.他指导过许多更年轻的医生。

12 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

13 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

15 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

16 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

17 proficiency   

n.精通，熟练，精练

参考例句：

• He plied his trade and gained proficiency in it.他勤习手艺，技术渐渐达到了十分娴熟的地步。
• How do you think of your proficiency in written and spoken English?你认为你的书面英语和口语熟练程度如何？

18 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

19 militant   

adj.激进的，好斗的；n.激进分子，斗士

参考例句：

• Some militant leaders want to merge with white radicals.一些好斗的领导人要和白人中的激进派联合。
• He is a militant in the movement.他在那次运动中是个激进人物。

20 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

21 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

22 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。